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Nasrallah’s dilemma: A crisis of strategic choices

Despite the setbacks, Nasrallah shows no sign of backing down from his support of Hamas.

By Baruch Yedid, TPS

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is at a critical crossroads. Will he back down from fighting, or risk an Israeli invasion of Lebanon?

His decision will come amid the loss of numerous key Hezbollah leaders in airstrikes, the shocking attack on the terror group’s communication devices, and the demands of his Iranian patrons.

This crisis is compounded by an unprecedented wave of displacement — nearly half a million Lebanese fleeing Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley.

Thousands of Lebanese are staying in makeshift shelters while at least 5,000 have crossed into neighboring Syria.

Exacerbating Nasrallah’s troubles, the displaced Lebanese are now largely dependent on international aid and may become a bargaining chip in future negotiations.

On the political front, Hezbollah’s leadership appears fragmented, with reports of internal discord between the organization’s leadership and its southern military command.

Nasrallah banked on the international community pressuring Israel to quickly end its war with Hamas. He expected his pre-October 7 arsenal of an estimated 200,000 rockets to deter Israel.

Instead, the fighting in Gaza is approaching its first anniversary. Nasrallah has not provided Hamas with any meaningful support. The elite Radwan Force is in disarray.

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The sabotage of thousands of communications devices has made Hezbollah a source of ridicule. And a ground war in Lebanon is looking increasingly likely.

Hezbollah figures are increasingly resorting to the rhetoric of martyrdom, indicating a growing sense of desperation.

Despite the setbacks, Nasrallah shows no sign of backing down from his support of Hamas. Hezbollah still maintains significant firepower, but Iran is currently restraining Hezbollah.

It is believed Iran will intervene if Hezbollah’s situation deteriorates. Tehran has invested far more in Hezbollah than Hamas.

Around 63,500 residents of northern Israel were forced to evacuate their homes when Hezbollah began launching rockets and drones in October. The terror group has launched more than 9,300 rockets and drones, killing 49 people on the Israeli side.

Israel has defeated Hamas enough that it is now turning its attention to safely bringing its evacuees home.

Israeli officials have been calling for Hezbollah to be disarmed and removed from southern Lebanon — from all locations south of the Litani River — in compliance with UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

Nasrallah can back down, sparing Lebanon from a destructive war, but lose his credibility as a leader in Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.” Or Nasrallah can fight to the end and sacrifice Lebanese lives.