The official also contrasted Iran’s attack tactics with Israel’s, noting that the IDF issued warnings to Iranian civilians to evacuate areas around weapons production sites before strikes.

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

As Iran continued its nightly barrages of ballistic missiles aimed at Israeli population centers, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed it has established air superiority from western Iran to the Iranian capital, and is operating freely over Tehran.

An IDF official, speaking on Sunday after a night that saw over 70 surface-to-surface missiles fired at Israel, killing 13 people, stated that the ongoing operation is a necessary response to an existential threat that goes beyond the nuclear program.

The official revealed that, according to Israeli intelligence, the Iranian regime has a concrete plan to increase its arsenal to 8,000 ballistic missiles in the near future with the express purpose of overwhelming Israel.

“Iran is intentionally firing ballistic missiles at Israeli homes and apartments. These aren’t misfires. They are deliberately targeting civilians,” the official stated.

“I want to share with you what it means when I’ve been telling you the last few days that Iran is planning to turn ballistic missiles into a tool to annihilate Israel.”

He continued, “Currently, the assessment entering this latest conflict a few days ago was that Iran has somewhere in the ballpark of 2000 missiles. We understand that they have a plan to achieve in the near future many more thousands of missiles—8,000 missiles. I just want you to imagine the attack Saturday night. That was just dozens of missiles. Imagine them having thousands of missiles.”

The official contrasted Iran’s attack tactics with Israel’s, noting that the IDF issued warnings to Iranian civilians to evacuate areas around weapons production sites before strikes.

“This portrays perfectly the difference between us. They are firing missiles at civilians. We are targeting military and nuclear targets. We are giving up the element of surprise, which is the most important element in the battlefield.”

Kuperwasser’s take

Speaking at a Jerusalem Press Club briefing on June 15, Brig. Gen.l (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of research at IDF Military Intelligence and current director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), elaborated on the strategic necessity behind the operation.

“We embarked on an operation that we didn’t have any other alternative but launching it,” Kuperwasser said. “The Iranians were moving towards having the capability to produce nuclear weapons within a short period of time and not only one weapon, but small arsenal of nuclear weapons. And we had to move.”

Kuperwasser said Israel had waited at the request of U.S. President Donald Trump to see if there was an Iranian “willingness” to strike a deal through diplomacy that would have stopped Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

“This didn’t work and the Iranians made it clear that they’re going to refuse to accept this offer. What we did in the first strike was extremely important,” he said.

“We eliminated nine of their scientists who were working on this weaponization project and we hit hard their air defense systems so that after two days of operation, we were able to control the skies of Tehran and western Iran and keep on acting against the infrastructure of both the nuclear project and the missiles.”

IDF assessment

The IDF confirmed on Sunday that in three days, it had struck more than 170 Iranian targets and more than 720 military infrastructure components. Targets included the headquarters of the Iranian Defense Ministry and the headquarters of the nuclear project (known as SPND).

The IDF official noted that Israel also struck two dual-use fuel sites near the port of Bandar Abbas and another near Tehran that support both military and nuclear activity.

Simultaneously, the IDF carried out an airstrike in Yemen targeting the Houthi chief of staff.

At a separate Jerusalem Press Club briefing on Saturday, Oded Ailam, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad and a current researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, described the long-term preparations for the mission.

“It’s not just a hit and run operation, it’s something that was prepared for a long time, for years by the Mossad and by other groups within the Israeli administration,” Ailam stated. “It’s a long process to infiltrate Iran in such a capacity that had been reflected in this campaign.”

He added that Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s military campaign against Iran, would be “a long-lasting operation… that still has quite a few targets and objectives to be reached by the Mossad and by the IDF. So definitely, it’s not the end of the story.”

Looking ahead

Dr. Eyal Pinko, a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center, provided an assessment of Iran’s remaining missile capabilities.

“The Iranians started this campaign with 2,000 ballistic missiles from different types and different families,” Pinko said, noting that they had already fired more than 500 missiles at Israel while others had been destroyed by Israeli Air Force attacks.

“It gives them a huge arsenal to fire, but in order to maintain their ability to strike Israel in the next few days, I believe that they will strike in fewer salvos or fewer missiles, at the same time trying to preserve their capabilities more and more,” Pinto said.

“But what maybe is more important from the Israeli point of view is that we also took down their launching vehicles, which are the critical part in the [missile attack] chain.”

An absence of launch vehicles creates a bottleneck that means that even if Iran still has many missiles, it lacks the means to fire them at Israel, he said.

Tal Inbar, a ballistic missile and drone expert, addressed the effectiveness of Israel’s multi-layered air defense, which has been able to intercept most of the Iranian ballistic missiles.

“An Iron Dome missile is much cheaper and we can produce much more missiles in the same amount of time in comparison with the heavier and the more sophisticated and of course more expensive Arrow 2 and especially Arrow 3,” Inbar explained.

Arrow 2 operates in the higher atmosphere, while Arrow 3 shoots down ballistic threats in space.

Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles, in comparison with missiles, are crude and simple to assemble, he said. Many of them have bee intercepted with Apache helicopters, as well as interceptors on-board the Israeli Navy, according to the IDF.

On Sunday, IDF Chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir held a situational assessment in the IAF’s underground command center, stating that the operation “reshaping the strategic reality of the State of Israel. We are removing an existential threat and reinforcing our security.”

He added, “The IDF, through the Israeli Air Force, has paved the way to Tehran and is striking the regime’s infrastructure and nuclear program with precision and scale beyond what the enemy had anticipated. A strong home front gives us the strength to carry on with our mission. We will continue to act with determination, strength, responsibility, and in full cooperation with all security branches—until all our objectives are achieved.”

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While Hamas retains small arms, TNT, and, potentially, the capacity for extremely restricted rocket production, the vast majority of the Hamas and PIJ arsenal has been destroyed.

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

On Jan. 6, terrorists in northern Gaza fired three rockets toward Sderot, Ibim and Nir Am, one of which was intercepted by the Israeli Air Force, with the other two causing damage but no injuries. The attack came after days of sirens in southern Israel, only some of which were false alarms.

These incidents underline the vastly reduced yet persistent threat posed by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), whose rocket arsenals and operational capabilities have been significantly degraded since the start of the war on Oct. 7, 2023.

At the start of the war, Hamas and PIJ reportedly held 15,000 rockets and a five-brigade, division-strong invasion force capable of seizing Israeli territory and committing massacres.

Today, their remnants consist of scattered guerrilla cells with small arms, rocket-propelled grenades and explosives—as well as a handful of projectiles. Israeli assessments suggest that these groups collectively have no more than dozens of rockets left, perhaps as many as 100.

However, professor Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy in Jerusalem, believes it may be more than a handful.

“I think it’s more than dozens. I think we’re talking about a few hundred rockets. We have to remember that Hamas prepared in advance for launching very large barrages at Israel, and hence, many rockets were prepared ahead of time,” including in underground locations and in orchards, he told JNS.

Michael described the recent launches as the Gaza terrorist groups’ final performance, arguing that in the war’s aftermath they will not regain the ability to flood Israeli skies with rockets, retaining only the ability to sporadically launch a projectile.

Currently, the vast majority of the Hamas and PIJ arsenal has been destroyed, said Michael. He noted also that some of its precious few remaining rockets are being launched as IDF forces close in on them.

While Hamas retains small arms, TNT, and, potentially, the capacity for extremely restricted rocket production, “Compared to what they had in October, and even after Oct. 7, we’re talking about completely minimal capabilities,” he said.

IDF operations in northern Gaza since the ground operation there began on Oct. 27 have focused on clearing key areas such as Beit Hanoun and Jabalia of remaining Hamas elements.

On Jan. 5, Israel’s Army Radio reported that rockets fired at the Erez Crossing had originated in Beit Hanoun, where the IDF’s Nahal Brigade had been operating.

A joint statement by the IDF and Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) on Jan. 5 detailed recent strikes on over 100 Hamas targets, resulting in the elimination of dozens of operatives and the destruction of rocket launch sites.

These types of operations, combined with precision strikes and intelligence efforts, have diminished Hamas’s ability to operate freely in the northern Gaza Strip.

While the IDF has made substantial progress in northern Gaza, new challenges are emerging in Gaza City, south of that area, Michael said. “They will try to regroup and rebuild capabilities in areas where we are less present, and we must be vigilant,” he told JNS.

The IDF’s responses would include continuous intelligence monitoring and targeted operations, he added.

Despite their diminished arsenals, sporadic rocket fire continues, and remains a threat that must be taken seriously, he told JNS. “Even a single rocket that is not intercepted can cause damage and casualties, as we saw in Sderot,” he said.

“We need to be prepared for occasional rocket fire even after the war concludes,” he cautioned. He emphasized that intelligence and operational freedom would allow Israel to maintain pressure and respond swiftly to any renewed threats.

During a Jan. 2 call organized by the Washington D.C-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amikam Norkin, former commander of the Israeli Air Force, emphasized the ongoing need for military operations in Gaza, stating, “The IDF will be launching military operations against terrorists in Gaza every few weeks.”

Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stated on the same call, “I think that we succeeded in neutralizing Hamas as a military terrorist organization, but still Hamas is strong inside Gaza.”

Amidror suggested that neutralizing Hamas entirely would take at least a year of sustained efforts, including targeting its leadership and infrastructure.

Amidror also raised the issue of governance post-conflict, asserting, “When it will not be relevant inside Gaza, we can call a third party to come into Gaza and take control of the civilian side. Until then, no one [externally] will be ready to take responsibility.”

On Jan. 4, IDF engineering units uncovered and destroyed a Hamas tunnel in central Gaza containing manufacturing facilities for munitions and explosives. The operation underscored ongoing efforts to dismantle the group’s remaining rocket production infrastructure.

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Friday’s event was complete with stands and booths giving away everything from tactical gear and vests to gifts, clothes, and school for the children of squad members, also came complete with food, live music, and speeches.

By Noah Michaeli, TPS

Understaffed, undersupplied, underfunded, and overworked, local Israeli civilian security teams were forced to battle heavily armed Hamas terrorists on October 7.

Since then, they have been forced to do everything from providing security for their communities during an ongoing war to putting out forest fires sparked by daily Hezbollah missile barrages.

In the face of these challenges, two Israeli nonprofits, Civil Squads of Israel and Israel Support Bridge, came together with around 1,500 members of the security teams and their families for an event on Friday morning, to provide some badly needed equipment, and express appreciation.

“For some, it’s one of the only times they’re able to get together and have a good time with their family in safety since October 7,” Alon Tirer, one of the founders of Civil Squads of Israel, told The Press Service of Israel.

Before the October 7 attacks, members of kitot konenut — as they are known in Hebrew – were trained in basic military and first aid skills and equipped, in theory, to handle threats until security forces arrived.

However, many civil defense squad members didn’t have enough helmets, vests, weapons, and more.

Friday’s event was complete with stands and booths giving away everything from tactical gear and vests to gifts, clothes, and school for the children of squad members, also came complete with food, live music, and speeches.

“The [Israel Defense Forces] are here to protect us, but we must recognize that in the critical first minutes, the local defense force will often stand alone,” said former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett at the event.

“If four individuals managed to fend off dozens of terrorists, imagine what a platoon with machine guns, reserve training days, and a properly funded security coordinator could achieve – nothing could overcome them,” he added.

For that reason, one of the main focuses of the event was enabling civil defense squad members to stock up on gear, Tirer explained.

“People can choose for themselves whatever equipment they like. It’s shopping for free,” he told TPS-IL.

The two nonprofits have done significantly more than that over the past year.

While Civil Squads of Israel is on the ground providing gear and training to the individual kitot konenut, Israel Support Bridge is known for its connections with donors, recipients and various government bodies.

“After October 7, I reached out to all the people I knew,” Ben Mammon, founder and CEO of Israel Support Bridge, told TPS-IL.

Mammon quickly began talking to people on the ground, different organizations, and government ministries, organizing a database of Israel’s wartime needs and figuring out how to get it to the right people.

One of those people was Nir Alon, founder and CEO of Civil Squads of Israel.

Born and raised in Kibbutz Sufa in the Gaza border region, Alon survived October 7 in a shelter at the kibbutz, and attributes his survival to the sacrifice of his community’s security team.

“During the attack there were only four people in the civil squad in Sufa, only four rifles with no scopes,” Alon recalled.

“Without the civil squads I wouldn’t be here, so I took this very seriously and realized that something needs to be done,” Alon said.

Since then, Civil Squads of Israel has launched trainings and supply drives across the country, training and equipping Israel’s frontline civilian responders in firefighting, first aid, and self-defense.

But needing help, Alon turned to Israel Support Bridge and its supply chain.

“Before long I had a full 747 plane land in Israel under my name, and after that two planes every week,” Mammon explained.

The partnership “enables buying in bulk: medical equipment, vests, firefighting support, whatever people need. The mechanism was always the same, working together, accumulating the resources, and getting the project done. Ultimately, we’re two big nonprofits working together towards the same goal,” Tirer said.

“Its’ one of those cases where one plus one is ten.”

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Even as some 80% of its firepower has been neutralized, Hezbollah’s potential to disrupt life in Israel’s northern regions remains.

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah over the past two months has caused devastating losses to the terror organization’s once-formidable arsenal.

Waves of large-scale Israeli Air Force strikes destroyed tens of thousands of enemy projectiles, alongside the elimination of Hezbollah’s senior military-terrorist leadership and severe harm caused to field-level commanders.

Despite attempts to conceal and protect its weaponry, by entrenching it in civilian village homes and under multi-story apartment buildings in Beirut and other cities, Hezbollah’s missile supply has been heavily damaged.

Questions remain, however, about the exact inventory Hezbollah retains and its capacity to fire further strikes. The Shi’ite group itself may not be fully aware of what is left of its arsenal.

According to a statement made by former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Oct. 29, Hezbollah has lost most of the rocket and missile capabilities it possessed prior to joining the war in support of Hamas.

“I estimate the remaining capacity of the missiles and rockets to be on the order of 20% [of the previous arsenal], and also it is not organized in the way that it used to be, in a way that [Hezbollah] could fire [major] volleys,” Gallant said during a visit to IDF Northern Command headquarters in Safed.

Before the IDF’s extensive aerial and ground strikes, some in the military assessed that Hezbollah could fire more than 10,000 projectiles per day in the first week of the conflict, with most of them targeting the north and some central Israel.

Now, Hezbollah is managing to fire between 100 and 200 rockets daily on average aimed at northern Israel, with sporadic attacks reaching central regions.

As Israel’s targeted ground operations continue in Southern Lebanon, alongside dozens of daily airstrikes throughout Lebanon, significant Hezbollah weapons stockpiles and infrastructure are still being uncovered and dismantled.

On Nov. 9, the IDF announced that troops of the IDF’s 769th “Hiram” Territorial Brigade, operating under the 91st “Galilee” Division, dismantled approximately 300 terrorist facilities and confiscated an array of weaponry, including Kornet anti-tank missiles, RPGs, combat equipment and intelligence materials.

In one notable discovery, IDF troops located a mobile missile system with 24 rockets ready to launch against civilian communities in the Galilee, concealed in a forested area and attached to a civilian structure. The IDF has secured the system and moved it into Israel.

Alma Center estimates

According to estimates by the Alma Research and Education Center, which specializes in threats from the northern arenas, prior to September, Hezbollah possessed 65,000 rockets with ranges of up to 80 kilometers (50 miles), 5,000 rockets and missiles with ranges of between 80 and 120 kilometers (75 miles), 5,000 missiles with ranges of between 200 (125 miles) and 700 kilometers (435 miles), and 2,500 unmanned aerial vehicles.

In addition, the Alma Center estimated that Hezbollah possessed some 150,00 mortar rounds, for a total arsenal of some 225,000 explosive charges (not including the UAVs).

The exact condition of Hezbollah’s remaining arsenal is challenging to verify.

On November 10, Walla reported that IDF assessments indicate that Hezbollah has lost about 80% of its rocket arsenal for ranges up to 40 kilometers (25 miles).

The report also estimates that, at the start of the conflict, Hezbollah had approximately 5,000 medium-range rockets, a number that has now dropped to fewer than 1,000.

Additionally, its short-range rocket stock has fallen from an estimated 44,000 to below 10,000

IDF assessments, according to the report, suggest that Hezbollah’s supply of precision-guided munitions, which initially numbers is the hundreds, is now reduced to less than a hundred units, including several coast-to-sea missiles.

Even amid these setbacks, Hezbollah continues to display its capabilities sporadically.

On Nov. 8, the group claimed to have fire “high-quality rockets” targeting the Israeli Navy’s Stela Maris base north of Haifa, as well as other military sites.

While Israel intercepts most attacks, such actions indicate Hezbollah’s attempts to activate remaining offensive capabilities and its willingness to settle into a war of attrition, despite the significant reduction of its stockpile.

Sustained by Iran

Hezbollah’s arsenal is sustained primarily through supply channels from Iran, which include overland and aerial routes via Syria.

Resupply typically flows through the Masnaa border crossing between Syria and Lebanon, according to the Alma Center, which in the past enabled a steady stream of rockets and precision components.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is responsible for overseeing these logistics, using the CERS (French acronym for Syrian Scientific Studies and Research) facility in Syria as a central hub.

This center not only produces weapons directly for Hezbollah but also serves as a key storage and distribution site for Iranian-supplied arms in the region, according to Alma.

Some precision weaponry reaching Hezbollah has been manufactured in Iran, while other components and precision systems are transferred from CERS in Syria under IRGC guidance.

Israel has spent weeks intensifying its efforts to interdict Hezbollah’s weapon supplies, an effort that will likely continue indefinitely.

The IAF has struck numerous convoys in Syria suspected of carrying weapons, including systems bound for Hezbollah’s caches in Lebanon.

Israeli intelligence continues to monitor land, air and maritime supply routes to prevent resupply from Iranian sources.

Nevertheless, a residual inventory, albeit smaller and fragmented, may allow Hezbollah to continue limited, targeted strikes until a ceasefire is reached.

Even as some 80% of its firepower has been neutralized, Hezbollah’s potential to disrupt life in Israel’s northern regions remains.

Following any future truce, it will be critical for Israel to ensure that Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its deadly arsenals with the assistance of Iranian military technology and supply networks remains severely disrupted and under continuous surveillance and attack.

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