US Vice President JD Vance has arrived at the Qatari-owned Bürgenstock Resort, a secluded luxury mountain retreat overlooking Lake Lucerne, where the first direct US-Iran negotiations since the war are set to begin. The high-security summit is expected to shape the future of Tehran’s nuclear program and determine whether President Donald Trump’s controversial agreement survives.

The talks open amid extreme regional tensions, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz over alleged Israeli ceasefire violations in Lebanon, while the fragile Israel-Hezbollah truce continues to teeter on the brink. Vance said the negotiations will focus on Iran’s nuclear program and preventing renewed fighting on the Lebanese front.

Behind closed doors, Washington is reportedly seeking Tehran’s approval for the return of UN nuclear inspectors to Iranian nuclear sites for the first time since the joint US-Israeli strikes. In exchange, the US is reportedly prepared to unlock billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds and begin implementing key provisions of the agreement. With critics warning the deal grants Tehran sweeping concessions, the outcome of the Bürgenstock talks could either cement a new regional order—or send the Middle East back toward war.

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Iran’s nuclear ambitions go hand in hand with its broader aspirations: to spread its ideological vision of an ummah (global Islamic nation) under its control, as enshrined in the country’s constitution.

By Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, Gatestone Institute

Iran, led by the mullahs, is on the brink of crossing the nuclear weapons threshold. Once it reaches this milestone, the regime is presumably hoping that it would then be too hazardous for any country to stop it.

It is critical to act decisively as soon as possible to stop Iran before it crosses that threshold. Failing to will only embolden a regime known for unremitting aggression at home and abroad.

The Iranian regime seeks to acquire the power to expand its ideological reach to dominate the region — for a start.

Diplomacy, negotiations, or a new “deal,” have no hope of limiting the regime’s plans either for a nuclear weapons breakout or for “exporting the revolution” after Trump has safely left office.

As US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) put it:

“There’s a one in trillion chance you’ll degrade the Iranian nuclear program through diplomacy. There’s a 90% chance you’ll degrade it through military action by Israel, supported by the United States.”

Once Iran achieves nuclear weapons capability, it will be emboldened in ways that will make the world’s current geopolitical challenges seem manageable.

A nuclear-armed Iran would most likely escalate its aggression, continuing to pose an existential threat to US forces in the region; to the oil-rich Sunni Arab countries in the Gulf; to the “little Satan,” Israel, and of course, to the “Great Satan” in the Western Hemisphere, the US.

As The Atlantic cautioned, “When Iran Says ‘Death to Israel,’ It Means It.” Iran also means it when it places military assets in Venezuela and the Caribbean.

An empowered, nuclear-armed Iran would no doubt increase its support for its terrorist proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, as well as most likely trigger the mother of all nuclear arms races.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions go hand in hand with its broader aspirations: to spread its ideological vision of an ummah (global Islamic nation) under its control, as enshrined in the country’s constitution.

While Iran’s nuclear program poses a significant external threat, the mullahs have long employed brutal tactics to suppress their own people. They have a 46-year record of engaging in mass executions, torture and imprisoning dissidents.

Iran’s leadership, knowing that it faces little risk of external intervention, would likely become even more zealous to impose its will on its citizens. As Graham has remarked, “It would be like negotiating with Hitler.”

Ending Iran’s nuclear program, bluntly, is a matter of global security. The United States must stand not just with Israel and the Gulf States, but with itself. “If we don’t do that,” Graham said, “it will be a historical mistake.”

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