Israeli intelligence mistakenly believed that Assad would not be ousted, largely due to the support of Russia and Iran.

By World Israel News Staff

Israeli intelligence agencies were caught off-guard by the speed and success of the rebels’ takeover of Syria, after the anti-government militias officially declared victory in ousting President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday.

According to Hebrew-language outlet Yediot Ahronot, Israel intelligence indicated that Assad’s grip on power in the country, which has been ravaged by more than a decade of civil war, was stable.

Bolstered by support from Russian and Iran, Assad’s position as the leader of Syria was not seriously threatened by the rebels, Israeli intelligence believed.

For years, Russia provided intense military support to Assad, including conducting airstrikes on rebel groups and helping retake major cities, such as Palmyra, after they were captured by militias.

Iran directed Hezbollah, its proxy group, to fight against the rebels in Syria in order to protect Assad.

But with Russian forces stretched thin due to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and Hezbollah suffering unprecedented blows during the conflict with Israel, Assad’s strongest supporters did not provide the backing he needed to crush the rebel offensive.

“Tehran and Moscow did not foresee the collapse of the regime, but neither did Israel’s intelligence agencies or the Mossad see anything like that on the horizon,” Israeli journalist Nadav Eyal wrote on his X account.

“With all due respect to our intelligence services, the Israeli assessment should have been better.”

Israel is now grappling with unanticipated security concerns, as the Assad regime was toppled and the rebels are now in control of much of the country.

It’s widely understood that many of the rebel forces are funded and supported by Turkey, which has expressed major hostility towards Israel since the outbreak of the war against Hamas.

Additionally, many rebel leaders adhere to an Islamist ideology, with some of the groups absorbed into the wider anti-Assad movement originating as offshoots of Al-Qaeda.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar warned the rebels that they are obligated to abide by existing security arrangements between Israel and Syria, or risking facing consequences from the IDF.

Sa’ar noted that in recent days, armed militants had “entered the buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border with Israel,” saying that constituted a violation of a May 1974 agreement to keep the area free of Israeli or Syrian troops.

The presence of armed rebels near the Israeli border constitutes a threat to Israel’s security, particularly the communities of the Golan Heights.

Sa’ar stressed that Israel would act to protect its citizens and assets, but added that Jerusalem “will not intervene in the internal conflict in Syria.”

The post Israel surprised by Syrian rebels’ victory, downfall of Assad appeared first on World Israel News.

The dictator’s struggles could, however, provide further opening for Israel to deliver a crushing blow on Tehran.

By Adam Kredo, The Washington Free Beacon

With Hezbollah decimated, Iran significantly weakened, and Russia preoccupied with its war on Ukraine, Syrian opposition forces enjoyed ripe conditions for the surprise offensive they launched last week.

Those forces are closer than ever to deposing dictator Bashar al-Assad, experts told the Washington Free Beacon, emphasizing the Iranian regime’s ever-loosening grip on the Middle East.

The reignited Syrian war, which has dragged on for 13 years, will pose fresh challenges for the incoming Trump administration as it grapples with a Middle East already inflamed by a year of war between Israel and Iran-backed forces across the region.

It is this very conflict, regional analysts and former U.S. national security officials say, that set the stage for Syria’s armed rebel forces to reclaim Aleppo, a key stronghold, and set their sites on the capital city, Damascus.

The key player in the coming battle for control of Syria is Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is backing anti-Assad forces and likely played a role in initiating their stunning offensive.

These forces are primarily composed of Islamist militias controlled by Hayʼat Tahrir ash-Sham, a U.S.-designated terror group. On the other side is Assad, a brutal dictator who relies on support from Iran and Russia.

“For years, Iran dominated Syria through Assad, but Erdogan saw an opening with a weakened Iran and Hezbollah thanks to Israeli operations,” said Simone Ledeen, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.

“By supporting Islamist networks, Turkey is pushing to fill the vacuum left by Iran’s decline. This could redraw the map of the Middle East.”

Still, Assad’s decline would by no means lead to a friendly replacement for the United States.

The Syrian conflict is “the Middle East equivalent of Alien vs Predator,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies analyst Jonathan Schanzer said. “All of the players are bad actors with terrorist, anti-American, or anti-Israel agendas.”

The dictator’s struggles could, however, provide further opening for Israel to deliver a crushing blow on Tehran.

Iran is reportedly dispatching scores of fighters to Syria to combat the rebel forces, and its air defenses are already decimated thanks to Israel’s October counterstrike on the Islamic Republic.

Amid the chaos, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu could see an opportunity to strike Tehran again, “including the nuclear program,” according to former White House national security adviser John Bolton.

That option remains “still on the table,” he said. “It’s still the regime in Tehran,” Bolton said. “That’s what the threat is. Assad is a manifestation of that threat.”

With Syrian opposition forces now closing in on Damascus following the siege of Aleppo and ensuing battles in other towns, analysts are just beginning to digest how Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah has fundamentally reshaped the region.

“The Israelis have helped change and weaken those players” who back Assad, according to former U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, who discussed the situation during a Tuesday briefing hosted by the Middle East Institute.

Since last week’s march on Aleppo, for example, the Israelis reportedly intercepted an Iranian supply plane heading to Damascus, further underscoring Tehran’s weakened hand.

At this early stage in the conflict, Erdogan’s Turkey has the most to gain, potentially extracting territorial concessions from Assad and his Russian allies, according to Bolton. Moscow, however, is chiefly concerned about its two military bases in Syria, which give the Russians leverage over the region.

While it’s unclear what Syria will look like in the coming months, one possibility could see Erdogan’s Turkey “controlling Islamist forces in one part and Russia clinging to an enclave of Christian communities in another,” Ledeen, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense, told the Free Beacon.

As the Middle East undergoes monumental shifts, the United States has largely sat on the sidelines.

“One of the most troubling aspects of this moment is that we’re watching tectonic plates shift, yet there’s no visible effort—or even apparent desire—to shape these outcomes to our benefit,” Ledeen said.

“This moment is a test of American resolve, and our adversaries are closely watching. Iran is emboldened, Russia and China are taking notes, and our allies are growing increasingly uneasy.”

The post ‘This could redraw the map of the Middle East’: How Assad’s struggles in Syria reflect a weakened Iran appeared first on World Israel News.

Israel remains cautious about taking sides publicly while preparing itself for a range of scenarios.

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

Since Nov. 27, the Syrian civil war has seen a resurgence of hostilities that directly threatens the stability of President Bashar Assad’s regime, following an offensive launched by Sunni rebels from Idlib in northwestern Syria.

The renewed fighting has seen the rebels quickly take Aleppo and advance further south, and is being closely monitored by Israel.

It is already drawing in Russia, which is conducting airstrikes on the Sunni forces, while unconfirmed reports of strikes by an unidentified air force targeted positions of Iran-backed militias in Deir Ezzor, northeastern Syria, an area used by Shi’ite militias to cross into Syria from Iraq.

At the forefront of the renewed offensive against Assad’s forces is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist organization led by the 43-year-old Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.

Formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda in Syria and known as Jabhat al-Nusra before breaking ties with al-Qaeda, HTS has become the primary umbrella force challenging the Syrian government in the Idlib region.

Israel remains cautious about taking sides publicly, while preparing itself for a range of scenarios.

Lt. Col. (res.) Marco Moreno, a former senior officer in the IDF’s Human Intelligence Unit 504 who was responsible for the Lebanon and Syria arenas, and the founder and commander of “Operation Good Neighbor” from 2012 to 2016, which provided humanitarian aid to Syrians during the civil war, directly linked current events in that country with the hammer blows sustained by Hezbollah and the Shi’ite axis in neighboring Lebanon.

“The rebels have been waiting with plans for a long time, and once they saw that we weakened and harmed Hezbollah in Lebanon—and in Syria—they took advantage of the opportunity to attack,” Moreno told JNS on Sunday.

Moreno noted that the direct impact on Israel at this stage is minor, since the fighting is not occurring close to the border in southern Syria.

‘Syria’s Philadelphi Corridor’

He also noted that the Assad regime has played a highly destructive and dangerous role for Israel’s security over the years, supplying highly advanced, strategic weaponry to Hezbollah.

“The Assad regime allowed Syria to be the Philadelphi Corridor [the Gazan area bordering Sinai used to smuggle weapons] on steroids,” said Moreno.

Many of the weapons Hezbollah used against Israel in the recent war came from Syria, he said. “When I say strategic weaponry was smuggled from Syria, I mean strategic, without going into further details,” he added.

The rebels, he said, are an assortment of groups including extremist jihadists.

“As someone who ran ‘Operation Good Neighbor’ in the Golan Heights, I know the rebels well—the good and the less good. I think that when the rebellion reaches southern Syria, the Golan Heights, it could create a security challenge on the border. The Israel Defense Forces will have the needed skills, acquired from the past, to deal with this event,” Moreno said.

Israel will likely be able to set up arrangements, not all of them necessarily public, with rebel groups, he assessed.

“Once Syria is removed from the Shi’ite axis, the Iranian axis will be severely harmed. The next step will be the Iranian axis itself,” he said. “This is something that will project on all of the arenas, including Hamas and Hezbollah.”

Regarding concerns that sites belonging to the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center, which, in cooperation with Iran develops precise missiles, and according to reports, chemical weapons, could fall into the hands of jihadists, Moreno said, “Israeli intelligence agencies would have to monitor this, and if needed, act in this scenario.”

He added that if rebels destroy sites used to supply Hezbollah with weapons, this could also benefit Israel.

Israeli intelligence superiority is well established in the northern arena, he argued.

Addressing the Turkish role, Moreno said that Ankara appears to be motivated in backing a number of rebel groups by the goal of moving millions of Sunni refugees who have found haven in Turkey back to Syrian soil, and perhaps to initiate this maneuver before the second Trump administration is sworn in.

Turkey might also sense an opportunity to push the Kurds back from the Turkish border, he added.

“We’re in the Middle East and I personally believe that this chaos is good, it creates opportunities – if one knows how to exploit them,” said Moreno.

Essentially al-Qaeda or ISIS

Brig. Gen. (res.) Dedy Simhi, former chief of staff of the IDF Home Front Command, told JNS on Sunday that the complete collapse of Assad’s regime would “not good for Israel because the alternative might be that these Sunni jihadists, essentially al-Qaeda or ISIS in some form, could rise.”

He added, “I would prefer Assad weakened and bleeding in power rather than Syria completely falling apart. … Israel must sit on the sidelines for now, avoid intervention, and be prepared for anything that might happen.”

Israel’s interest, he argued, is not for Syria to turn into Yemen or Iraq, or Libya.

Simhi added that the harm caused to Hezbollah and to Hamas, as well as the destruction of the entire Iranian air defense array on Oct. 26 by the Israeli Air Force, and the Israeli strikes on Yemen, have all weakened the Shi’ite axis.

This led the Sunni rebels to decide to take advantage of the weakness of their enemy, that same Shi’ite axis, and to attack.

“There are other considerations here too,” he added. “Turkey is supporting the rebels—they want to return the four million Syrian refugees to northern Syria.”

Simhi echoed Moreno’s assessment that Israel will be capable of detecting scenarios of advanced weaponry falling into jihadi hands and acting in time if necessary.

Iran and Russia embarrassed

According to a report by Mako on Sunday, “In Iran and Russia, the two biggest patrons of Assad since the middle of the previous decade, it is evident that they were surprised and very embarrassed by the collapse of the Syrian army forces. Direct Iranian and Russian assets were severely damaged in the recent battles, and now there is a frantic effort to try and regain control.”

Iranian interests have suffered notably. “On Wednesday night, Iranian General Qomars Furuhashi, a very senior official in the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, was eliminated on the outskirts of Aleppo,” Mako reported.

The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies provided an in-depth analysis of HTS in August 2023.

The organization has changed significantly since its al-Qaeda-affiliated days, the report argued. “HTS’s current political-religious ideology frames the group as strictly Syria-focused and religiously moderate,” the center reported.

Despite efforts to rebrand, concerns persist about HTS’s authoritarian control and threats. “HTS has shown limited tolerance for political dissent, reacting swiftly and harshly to any protests or civilian complaints,” the analysis highlighted.

The degree to which the group has the capacity to govern and the nature of its interactions with transnational terrorist groups remain points of contention.

The post Chaos in Syria ‘creates opportunities’ against Iranian axis appeared first on World Israel News.