As ceasefire’s end approaches, Israeli officials doubt Lebanon’s long-term stability

Jerusalem remains concerned about the Lebanese Armed Forces’ ability to fill the vacuum left by Hezbollah.

By Baruch Yedid, TPS

As the end of a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon approaches, Israeli officials are voicing skepticism about Beirut’s ability to enforce the agreement over the long term.

A senior Israeli political source told The Press Service of Israel, “Until January 27th, there is still an eternity in terms of the region. The decision to completely withdraw from Lebanon could be made even 24 hours before the end of the 60 days, and there is still a long process of electing a president in Lebanon, and more developments are expected in Syria. We are keeping the extension of the [Israel Defense Force’s] stay as an option for all intents and purposes.”

Under the terms of a two-month ceasefire that went into effect on November 27, Hezbollah is supposed to withdraw its armed presence from areas of southern Lebanon south of the Litani River.

Israeli forces will also withdraw from southern Lebanon in stages. The Lebanese Armed Forces is to be deployed in southern Lebanon including along the 120 km border with Israel, as will monitors from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon.

“The first phase of the agreement is now a test for Israel and Lebanon. Can the Lebanese army confront Hezbollah and impose the terms of the agreement? If not, what happens after the 60 days?” the Israeli political source told TPS-IL.

A second Israeli source familiar with US mediator Amos Hochstein’s efforts told TPS-IL Jerusalem remains concerned about the Lebanese Armed Forces’ ability to fill the vacuum left by Hezbollah.

“We are closely examining what is happening on the ground. If the Lebanese are not sufficiently deployed, then what happens on the 61st day will delay the continued implementation of the ceasefire,” he said.

January 9 may be a critical juncture. That’s when Lebanon’s parliament gathers to elect a new president. President Michel Aoun’s six-year term ended in October 2023 and political deadlock has left the position vacant ever since.

The election comes as Hezbollah is weakened by war and isolated by the overthrow of Syria’s Iran-backed government.

By convention, the Lebanese presidency is held by a Maronite Christian. Hezbollah’s preferred candidate had been Suleiman Frangieh, a former cabinet minister, but Frangieh’s strength was his closeness to now-deposed Syrian President Bashar Assad.

If a Hezbollah-backed candidate fails to win, it will lose significant political standing and possibly spur the Iran-backed terror group to return to war. The US, France and Saudi Arabia back Lebanese Army Chief Joseph Aoun.

The ceasefire gives Israel the ability to respond to Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire, and Israeli forces have frequently uncovered weapons and terror infrastructure south of the Litani River.

But repeated Lebanese accusations of “Israeli violations have fueled tensions. A Lebanese MTV report suggested the U.S. might propose extending the ceasefire agreement for another 60 days to address these challenges. Meanwhile, Israel’s withdrawal from the town of Naqoura has begun.

After the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, Hezbollah began launching rockets and launching drones at northern Israel communities daily. More than 68,000 residents of northern Israel are displaced from their homes. Hezbollah leaders have repeatedly said they would continue the attacks to prevent Israelis from returning to their homes.

At least 1,200 people were killed, and 252 Israelis and foreigners were taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on Israeli communities near the Gaza border on October 7. Of the 97 remaining hostages, more than 30 have been declared dead. Hamas has also been holding captive two Israeli civilians since 2014 and 2015, and the bodies of two soldiers killed in 2014.

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