While the Trump administration has ordered strikes against the Houthis, and while Hezbollah and Hamas have been weakened by Israel, it will take time before it is safe to declare all three proxies non-threats.
By Israel Kasnett, JNS
The second Trump administration has met with responses varying from enthusiasm to anxiety, depending on who you ask.
In Israel, there is concern among some that issues important to Jerusalem might be less so to Washington; U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is focused on “America first” and ending wars.
Many Israelis would like to see Israel finally annex parts of Judea and Samaria with American support, but it is far more likely that Trump’s main focus will be the expansion of the Abraham Accords.
The more nations normalize relations with Israel, the more beneficial for America, as it reduces the chances of war in the Middle East, freeing Trump to focus on domestic issues.
According to Efraim Inbar, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, the expansion of the Abraham Accords “is a Trump administration objective.”
Trump’s former Middle East envoy, Jason Greenblatt, confirmed this last December when he told delegates at Qatar’s Doha Forum that “there’s just no way that President Trump isn’t going to be interested in trying to expand the Abraham Accords.”
Among the possible candidates for normalization with Israel are Mauritania, Somalia, Niger, Azerbaijan and Indonesia—but the single most important country is Saudi Arabia.
For several months, Saudi Arabia has consistently and emphatically underscored that a ceasefire in Gaza is an indispensable prerequisite for initiating or advancing any meaningful discussions with the United States regarding normalization of relations with Israel.
The Saudi leadership has repeatedly emphasized that without a cessation of hostilities in Gaza, no progress can be made on this front.
Furthermore, they have articulated a broader condition: Beyond just a ceasefire, there must be tangible and substantial steps forward in the pursuit of Palestinian statehood—however that may ultimately be defined—as a critical component of any potential normalization process.
This insistence on both a halt to the conflict and a credible path toward a Palestinian state reflects Saudi Arabia’s seemingly firm stance that these issues are non-negotiable foundations for engaging in any diplomatic momentum with the United States and Israel.
However, whether the Saudis will actually insist on these conditions to move toward normalization with Israel is debatable, and it is unclear whether their public statements differ from those they express in private.
Despite all the talk of pending normalization with other countries, according to Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Washington, D.C.-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “We may unfortunately be far off from new agreements, at least the way things stand right now.”
“The war in Gaza is not yet over,” he said, “and it remains a serious wedge issue between Israel and its Arab friends.”
Schanzer also told JNS he believes that the Arab states will “harbor doubts” about normalization as long as the Iranian axis remains undefeated.
“What’s needed now is an end to the war and an end to the threats of Iran and its proxies. From there, the path is paved (albeit with many bumps and potholes) for a new Middle East,” he said.
The Iranian axis, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, remains a formidable threat.
While the Trump administration has ordered strikes against the Houthis, and while Hezbollah and Hamas have been weakened by Israel, it will take time before it is safe to declare all three proxies non-threats.
Hezbollah still has aspirations to reconstitute. Hamas has yet to be defeated, and it is likely we will witness more fighting in Gaza to achieve this goal.
It is promising to note however that despite all that has occurred since Oct. 7, 2023, the Abraham Accords, formulated in 2020 during the first Trump administration, have held fast.
At the time, the Trump administration secured normalization agreements between Israel and four Arab countries—Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates.
Inbar warned that no concessions should be made to the Saudis in exchange for a normalization agreement, “particularly in the nuclear arena.”
He predicted that Indonesia, the largest Muslim country, could be next to normalize with Israel, and that “if there is a change in Dhaka, Bangladesh could be another option.”
At the moment, Israel is engaged in negotiations with Lebanon, and while the chances are still slim, it is possible a normalization agreement or even full diplomatic relations could emerge from the talks.
According to Inbar, Israel “should realize that another flag of a Muslim state in Tel Aviv is less important than the bilateral relations under the table.”
He suggested that Israel should try to bring more embassies, “or at least an economic office,” to Jerusalem.
“Trump moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, and we should convince him that his gesture should be emulated by newcomers to the Abraham Accords,” said Inbar.