Classified US intelligence report says US military effort unlikely to topple Iranian regime

The intelligence assessment determined that Iran’s clerical and military leadership would probably maintain control of the country.

By Vered Weiss, World Israel News

A classified assessment by the US intelligence community concluded that even a major American military campaign against Iran would be unlikely to remove the Islamic Republic’s ruling establishment, according to reporting by The Washington Post citing three people familiar with the document.

The analysis was prepared by the National Intelligence Council roughly a week before the United States and Israel began the war on Feb. 28.

According to people familiar with the report, analysts evaluated multiple scenarios, including a limited operation aimed at senior leaders and a broader offensive targeting Iran’s political and security institutions.

The intelligence assessment determined that Iran’s clerical and military leadership would probably maintain control of the country even if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed.

The report concluded that existing succession mechanisms and internal procedures are designed to preserve continuity of authority.

People familiar with the findings said the possibility that Iran’s fragmented opposition could assume power after such an operation was considered “unlikely.”

The National Intelligence Council, made up of senior analysts who synthesize the views of Washington’s 18 intelligence agencies, produces classified estimates intended to reflect the collective judgment of the US intelligence community.

The CIA referred inquiries about the report to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which declined to comment.

The White House did not say whether President Donald Trump reviewed the assessment before approving the military campaign, which has expanded geographically to include submarine operations in the Indian Ocean and missile confrontations near NATO member Turkey.

The administration has publicly framed the conflict around military objectives tied to Iran’s weapons capabilities. “President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said. “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.”

As the war enters its second week, Trump has continued to demand Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and has suggested he should have a role in selecting the country’s next leadership.

“We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job,” he told NBC News.