Despite cluster challenge, Israel maintains high interception rate against Iranian missiles

Hundreds of tons of shrapnel have fallen on the home front since the start of the war, but the fragments cannot penetrate safe rooms or bomb shelters.

By JNS

The Israel Defense Forces has neutralized well over 70% of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile and launchers, while maintaining a 92% interception rate against more than 400 missiles fired at the Israeli home front since the war began, according to military figures.

The ongoing Iranian attacks include the heavy use of cluster munitions, which present a significant challenge even as the vast majority of direct missile impacts are thwarted.

According to IDF International Spokesperson Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, who spoke earlier this week after two direct hits in civilian areas in Arad and Dimona that led to more than 100 injuries, military data continues to indicate a highly effective air-defense array, with four direct hits recorded since the start of the war out of hundreds of missiles fired.

The impacts occurred in Tel Aviv, Beit Shemesh, Arad and Dimona.

The Iranian regime has focused on targeting civilian communities, reflected in the fact that all casualties from ballistic missile attacks in the current war are civilians.

“Cluster munitions fired toward large cities, covering wide areas, are designed to hit civilians,” Shoshani said.

When an Iranian ballistic missile deploys its cluster payload at an estimated altitude of just under 10 kilometers, lower-tier interception systems appear to lose effectiveness against the scattered submunitions.

Consequently, the defense architecture relies on upper-tier interceptors such as Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 to destroy the primary warhead prior to the dispersal of the cluster munitions. Interception prior to deployment eliminates the threat.

When an Iranian cluster munition disperses successfully, the submunitions have a destructive capacity roughly equivalent to standard 122 mm rockets.

The Iranian defense industry also appears to place cluster payloads on older Chinese-manufactured rocket models previously encountered during the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

Meanwhile, the danger to civilians from interception debris means the Home Front Command keeps civilians in secure locations until the risk has passed.

Hundreds of tons of shrapnel have fallen on the home front since the start of the war, but the fragments cannot penetrate safe rooms or bomb shelters.

Iran has been firing several types of ballistic missiles in the current conflict, including the Khorramshahr-4, an older model featuring a heavy warhead, and a limited number of Sejjil two-stage solid-fuel missiles.

From the ground in Israel, these incoming warheads appear identical.

“From what we know so far, these are missiles we have encountered before and are capable of intercepting,” Shoshani said, speaking after the southern impacts.

Prior to the strikes in Dimona and Arad, the air-defense array successfully intercepted similar missiles in southern Israel.

To degrade the threat, the Israeli Air Force has carried out extensive strikes on Iran’s missile program, significantly reducing launch capabilities.

“The launch rate has dropped by 80-90%, which we see as a major achievement,” Shoshani said.

The current daily launch rate stands at roughly 10 missiles per day.

Addressing Iran’s missile strike on Diego Garcia on March 19, some 4,000 kilometers from Iran, Shoshani said, “Just two days before the war, Iranian officials denied having missiles beyond 2,000 km.”

The extended range places European capitals within reach.

“This means cities like Berlin, Paris, Rome and London are within range,” he said.

The IDF is also targeting strategic nuclear research and development facilities alongside missile-program sites.

The Home Front Command conducts ongoing intelligence assessments to balance civilian protection with maintaining routine activity to the extent possible.

The command coordinates directly with local authorities, prioritizing the saving of lives while seeking to preserve flexibility in civilian sectors.

Alongside the Iranian threat, northern Israel has faced continued rocket fire from Hezbollah in Lebanon. Nuriel Dubin, 27, a resident of Moshav Margaliot, was killed on Tuesday in a Hezbollah rocket attack in the Galilee.