If US & Iran reach deal Israel will attack Iran’s ballistic missile sites alone

Defense analyst Dr. Miriam Halevy says Israel’s warnings reflect long‑standing strategic doctrine rather than political theater.

By Hezy Laing

As U.S. and Iranian negotiators prepare to resume talks in Oman, senior Israeli figures are warning that Jerusalem may act alone if a new agreement fails to address Iran’s expanding ballistic‑missile arsenal.

According to Yaakov Bardugo, a veteran political analyst and confidante of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is prepared to strike Iranian missile sites without American backing if Washington reaches a deal that focuses solely on the nuclear program.

Bardugo said Israel views Iran’s missiles and regional proxy forces as existential threats equal to the nuclear issue and will not allow diplomacy to restrict its military options.

“Israel has made clear to Washington that ballistic missiles and proxies must be addressed in any talks with Iran,” Bardugo said.

He added that President Trump told Netanyahu during a meeting at Mar‑a‑Lago that the United States would not interfere if Israel moved to eliminate the missile threat, though the White House has not confirmed such an understanding.

Bardugo also said Trump’s current stance is uncertain amid what he described as pressure from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to prioritize diplomacy.

Defense analyst Dr. Miriam Halevy says Israel’s warnings reflect long‑standing strategic doctrine rather than political theater.

“For decades, Israel has maintained that it must retain freedom of action against threats that can reach its territory,” she explains.

“If Iran’s missiles are left out of a deal, Israeli leaders will feel they have no choice but to act independently.”

Retired Air Force commander Col. Eitan Rahamim agrees, noting that Israel has demonstrated willingness to strike Iranian nuclear infrastructure in the past.

“The missile program is not theoretical,” he says.

“These systems are accurate, mobile, and capable of reaching Israel. From an Israeli military perspective, separating missiles from the nuclear file is impossible.”

Bardugo said Israel retains “full freedom of action” and may strike first if missiles are excluded from any agreement.

Tehran insists its missile program is defensive, but Israeli officials argue that the growing arsenal, combined with Iran’s support for regional proxy forces, poses an immediate danger.

As the Oman talks begin, the question is whether diplomacy can bridge the gap — or whether Israel will once again act alone to confront what it sees as an existential threat.