‘If we go back to fighting, the costs will be heavy’: security expert warns against ceasefire

He also stressed the high operational costs of regaining control over critical areas of Gaza, such as the Netzarim and Philadelphi Corridors.

By Sveta Listratov, TPS

As Israel weighs the merits of an emerging hostage and ceasefire deal, one security expert warned that the agreement has too many parallels with another hostage deal that led to the October 7 attacks.

“Ultimately, the deal is about security. No matter how you spin it, the effects are inherently tied to Israel’s security,” Col. (Res.) Hezi Nechama told The Press Service of Israel.

Nechama, a former brigade commander, is one of the founders of the Forum of Reservist Commanders and Fighters.

“By the next morning after the deal, Hamas will begin to recover and rearm faster than we might think. We’ll soon return to a scenario where Hamas operates as a powerful, armed organization,” he told TPS-IL.

Nechama drew parallels to the Gilad Shalit deal of 2011, when Israel freed 1,027 security prisoners for Shalit. Many of the terrorists involved in planning Hamas’s October 7 attack, including its mastermind, Yahya Sinwar were among those released in that swap.

He also stressed the high operational costs of regaining control over critical areas of Gaza, such as the Netzarim Corridor and the Philadelphi Corridor.

The Netzarim Corridor is a roughly eight km road that cuts off northern and southern Gaza. The Philadelphia Corridor is a buffer zone that runs the length of the 14-km Gaza-Egypt border.

It was created in 2006 to prevent weapons smuggling after Israel disengaged from the Strip but Hamas violently seized control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority the following year.

“Re-conquering these areas will come at the price of many soldiers’ lives and injuries,” Nechama said, adding that abandoning these positions before all the hostages are released could lead to captives being transferred abroad via the Sinai to Yemen, Iran, or Turkey.

Another point of the deal, releasing convicted terrorists to Judea, Samaria, and Gaza, poses a direct threat to Israeli citizens, Nechama warned.

“These individuals have blood on their hands, and their motivation to carry out further attacks is often heightened after their release,” he said.

Moreover, allowing Gaza’s reconstruction without stringent oversight would lead to massive financial aid flowing into the hands of Hamas.

“Anyone who thinks they can control how these funds are used is turning a blind eye. The money will inevitably strengthen Hamas’s rule and bring in new weaponry that we’ll have to face in the future,” Nechama told TPS-IL.

While saving the lives of captives may justify these risks, Nechama stresses that such decisions should be made with full awareness of the price.

“If we go back to fighting, the costs will be heavy, unless we abandon the idea of fighting Hamas altogether, which means conceding our objectives,” he explained.

Under the terms of the emerging ceasefire, it is expected that the first 33 hostages to be released will be humanitarian cases — women, children, the elderly, and the sick.

Palestinians from northern Gaza who fled to southern areas of the Strip will be allowed to return to their homes. Israeli forces will not withdraw from the Strip until all the hostages are freed.

Opponents of the agreement are against any deal that does not bring home all the hostages at once.

At least 1,200 people were killed, and 252 Israelis and foreigners were taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on Israeli communities near the Gaza border on October 7. Of the 95 remaining hostages, more than 30 have been declared dead. Hamas has also been holding captive two Israeli civilians since 2014 and 2015, and the bodies of two soldiers killed in 2014.