Iran apparently planning to outwit or outwait Trump, not relinquish its nuclear program – analysis

The Axios news website quotes a US official and other sources as saying that American President Donald Trump had set a “two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear deal.”

By Con Coughlin, Gatestone Institute

Iran’s refusal to accept US President Donald Trump’s demand that it completely dismantle its controversial nuclear program, which Western intelligence officials are convinced is ultimately designed to build nuclear weapons, raises the very real risk of the US launching direct military action to destroy the program.

Trump’s initial offer to negotiate an end to Iran’s nuclear program was contained in a letter he wrote to the ayatollahs on March 7, in which he indicated he was willing to engage in talks concerning Iran’s nuclear activities.

But the letter also contained an explicit warning that any failure by Tehran to respond positively to his overture could lead to direct military action.

The Trump administration’s determination to end the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions once and for all was confirmed by the recent revelation by the Axios news website, which, quoting a US official and other sources, said the American president had set a “two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear deal.”

The new administration’s focus on Iran was confirmed by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy, who confirmed in an interview with the US Fox News network that Trump’s approach to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was aimed at avoiding direct military action.

“We don’t need to solve everything militarily… Our signal… to Iran is ‘Let’s sit down and see if we can, through dialogue, through diplomacy, get to the right place’. If we can, we are prepared to do that. And if we can’t, the alternative is not a great alternative.”

Meanwhile, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has warned that Iran needs to “hand over and give up” all elements of its nuclear program including missiles, weaponization, and enrichment of uranium “or they can face a whole series of other consequences,” adding that “Iran has been offered a way out of this.”

The latest comments made by Witkoff and Waltz reflect a deepening resolve with the Trump administration to end Iran’s long-running nuclear plans. As Trump himself remarked after announcing his initial overture to Iran, “You can’t let them have a nuclear weapon.”

“The time is coming up. Something’s going to happen one way or the other. I hope that Iran — and I’ve written him a letter, saying, ‘I hope you’re going to negotiate.’ Because if we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing — for them.”

While Iranian media have confirmed that Trump’s letter was delivered to Tehran by a senior United Arab Emirates diplomat, Iran’s refusal to respond positively to his overture means there is now a very real possibility that the Trump administration is giving serious consideration to launching military action against Tehran.

The chances of the Trump administration authorizing direct military attacks against Iran have risen even more sharply after the US attacked Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have conducted a series of attacks against Israel, claiming they are acting in support of Iranian-backed Hamas terrorists.

After the US military launched a wave of air strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen, Trump warned that he would hold Tehran directly responsible for any future attacks carried out by the Houthi rebels in Yemen:

“Let nobody be fooled! The hundreds of attacks being made by Houthi, the sinister mobsters and thugs based in Yemen, who are hated by the Yemeni people, all emanate from, and are created by, IRAN. Any further attack or retaliation by the “Houthis” will be met with great force, and there is no guarantee that that force will stop there.”

The Trump administration’s willingness to confront Iran will have increased, moreover, following the latest assessment by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the body responsible for monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities.

The assessment stated that the ayatollahs have continued to work on their nuclear program to the extent that they now have enough material to construct at least five nuclear warheads.

So long as the Islamic Republic of Iran indulges in its usual tactic of prevarication in the hope that, by engaging in delaying tactics, it can buy more time to achieve its nuclear ambitions, the credibility of the Trump administration taking direct action against Tehran needs to increase.

Iran’s demand, for example, that it might consider opening negotiations with Washington if the Trump administration first agreed to lift punitive economic sanctions, is a classic exercise in the regime’s attempts to play for time.

Nor will the White House have been impressed by Khamenei’s latest defiant comments regarding the US.

“The Americans should know threats will get them nowhere when confronting Iran,” Khamenei said in his live annual televised speech marking Nowruz, the Persian New Year.

“Others should know that if they do anything malign to the Iranian nation, they will get a hard slap.”

If this is going to be the Iranian regime’s response to Trump’s offer of negotiating an end to Iran’s nuclear program, then the only realistic response available to the White House is to launch military action to end once and for all the threat Iran’s nuclear program presents to global security.