Iran still just one year away from nuke, despite US-Israeli attacks – report

US intelligence reports suggest Iran’s breakout time for weaponizing fissile uranium hasn’t changed since American and Israeli airstrikes.

By World Israel News Staff

The recent American-Israeli air campaign against the Iranian regime and its nuclear program has not succeeded in lengthening the time it would take the Islamic Republic to weaponize its stockpile of fissile material and assemble a nuclear weapon, American intelligence assessments indicate.

On Monday night, Reuters published a report that cited three sources familiar with the matter who said that US intelligence estimates on Iran’s “breakout time” remain unchanged from estimates after last summer’s US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

The assessments suggest two months of war launched by President Donald Trump have not significantly altered Tehran’s nuclear timeline, despite US and Israeli attacks on military and nuclear-related targets.

The sources said that US intelligence agencies had assessed before last June’s 12-day war that Iran could produce enough bomb-grade uranium and build a weapon in about three to six months.

After US strikes hit the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear complexes, that estimate was pushed back to about nine months to a year, the sources said.

The latest assessments remain broadly unchanged.

The finding suggests that further delaying Iran’s nuclear program may require destroying or removing its remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to verify the location of about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% since inspections were suspended. The agency assesses that the stockpile would be enough for 10 bombs if further enriched.

“While Operation Midnight Hammer obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities, Operation Epic Fury built on this success by decimating Iran’s defense industrial base that they once leveraged as a protective shield around their pursuit of a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said.

“President Trump has long been clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon – and he does not bluff,” she added.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to a request for comment.

US officials have repeatedly said preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is a central goal of the war.

“Iran can never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. That is the goal of this operation,” Vice President JD Vance wrote on X on March 2.

The war has stalled since the US and Iran agreed to an April 7 truce to pursue peace talks. Tensions remain high, with Iran restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global oil supplies.

The sources said the unchanged estimate reflects, in part, the focus of the latest campaign.

Israel has struck some nuclear-related targets, including a uranium-processing facility in late March.

But US attacks have focused mainly on conventional military capabilities, Iran’s leadership and its military-industrial base.

Eric Brewer, a former senior US intelligence analyst who led assessments of Iran’s nuclear program, said the estimates were not surprising.

“Iran still possesses all of its nuclear material, as far as we know,” said Brewer, now vice president of the nuclear materials study program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative. “That material is probably located in deeply buried underground sites where US munitions can’t penetrate.”

US officials have considered more dangerous options to further impede Iran’s nuclear program, including ground raids to retrieve highly enriched uranium believed to be stored in tunnels at Isfahan, the sources said.

Experts say assessing Iran’s nuclear capacity remains difficult, and the impact of Israel’s assassination campaign against Iranian nuclear scientists is uncertain.

David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, said the killings may have damaged Iran’s ability to build a working weapon.

“I think everyone agrees knowledge can’t be bombed, but know-how certainly can be destroyed,” he said.