Iran war expected to last at least another month – report

Air campaign against Iran taking longer than expected, Israeli officials say, with initial estimate of several weeks now acknowledged to be unrealistic.

By David Rosenberg, World Israel News

The war with Iran will last for at least another month, according to Israeli officials who spoke on condition of anonymity with Channel 12.

According to a report published Monday night, Israel had initially estimated that the air campaign, dubbed “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel, would most likely last only several weeks.

Now, however, the defense establishment has revised its projections, pushing back the estimated timing for the end of the conflict as the bank of targets in Iran has expanded significantly.

With the joint US-Israeli air campaign now in its 18th day, Israeli military planners say the country should be prepared for at least another month of fighting with Iran.

The revised timeline is the product of several unanticipated developments in the war, some of which stem from American considerations.

While Israel had hoped that a briefer war could destabilize the Iranian regime and facilitate a coup, the prewar planning was focused primarily on ensuring the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, its ballistic missile arsenal, and its missile production infrastructure.

Despite the killing of much of Iran’s senior leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israeli military intelligence has assessed that the regime is still resilient enough to crush any attempts by the opposition to overthrow the government.

On the other hand, the IDF is optimistic that continued pressure on the regime could weaken the Islamic Republic to the point that it could be vulnerable.

That has led to the massive expansion of the number of sites targeted in Iran, leading to an extension of the air campaign.

Furthermore, the US is now planning a naval operation in the Strait of Hormuz aimed at seizing control of the strategic waterway and ensuring the flow of oil tankers from Arab Gulf states.

Such an operation would likely take at least a month, the officials cited in the report estimated, with Israel expected to continue to strike Iran as long as the US continues the war.