Iran’s economy is collapsing; why hasn’t it triggered another mass uprising?

The economic crisis that created political anger has drained the time and energy needed to organize.

By Maddie Ali, The Algemeiner

US President Donald Trump’s renewed economic campaign against Iran is tightening an already severe squeeze on ordinary households.

Expanded secondary sanctions and a blockade of Iranian oil exports have sharply reduced Tehran’s access to foreign currency, making imports more expensive and pushing the rial to record lows.

The pressure is visible in smaller purchases, postponed medical treatment, and long queues for fuel.

Iran raised its domestic gasoline prices for consumers earlier this month, a politically sensitive step in a country where a sudden fuel-price increase helped ignite nationwide protests in 2019.

Iranians are worried that higher transport costs could spread to bread, meat, and other essentials.

“Basic groceries are now out of our reach. With fuel prices rising, the situation is only getting worse,” a Tehran resident told The Algemeiner.

The Algemeiner reported earlier this month that ordinary Iranians are largely blaming their own government for the country’s current financial crisis, seeing the regime as unable to manage the economy and prioritizing anti-Western ideology and support for terrorist groups over the needs of its people.

Yet Iran has not seen another nationwide uprising on the scale of the anti-regime protests that erupted in January.

The absence of mass demonstrations may appear surprising as living standards fall. However, it should not be mistaken for public satisfaction with the current situation.

In January, authorities responded to protests with an internet blackout, mass arrests, and lethal force.

Thousands of protesters were killed by the security forces of the Islamist regime, with estimates far exceeding what the regime has admitted and reportedly skyrocketing into the tens of thousands.

Fast-tracked trials and executions have kept the memory of January alive.

At least 29 people have been executed in connection with the protests, according to Human Rights Watch, while dozens more are considered at risk of execution.

The family of 20-year-old twins Taraneh and Romina Rahimi alleged that the sisters have been tortured after being detained over their participation in the January demonstrations.

Taraneh has been sentenced to death and Romina to 25 years in prison.

Such cases turn repression into a continuing warning. Someone considering a new protest is weighing more than one night in the street.

The risk can include later identification through surveillance footage, a raid on the family home, loss of employment, imprisonment, or even a death sentence.

“I don’t see mass protests happening anytime soon,” said a shopkeeper from Shiraz. “People are scared for their lives.”

The security presence also remains difficult to ignore.

Since the war between Iran and the US began in late February, checkpoints have become increasingly common, with a visible military presence across the cities.

Another restraint is survival itself. The economic crisis that created political anger has drained the time and energy needed to organize.

People working additional hours, searching for medicine, waiting for fuel, or shrinking their food budget have less capacity to sustain political action.

As purchasing power has collapsed, Iranian households have reduced food quality and delayed medical treatment.

The relative quiet in Iran is therefore better understood as a forced pause than a resolution of Iran’s political and economic grievances.

Small protests have been reported in different cities in recent days, including demonstrations over unemployment in southwestern Iran.

What has not reappeared is the cross-class, nationwide mobilization seen in January.

Whether that changes will depend on not only how bad the economy becomes but also whether a new event convinces large numbers of people that staying home is no safer or no longer more bearable than going into the streets.

Iranian officials appear aware of the danger. The heavy security presence at fuel stations and continuing pressure on civil society suggest that the state is trying to prevent scattered grievances from joining together.

Washington is betting that stronger economic pressure will force Tehran into concessions. But sanctions that impoverish citizens do not automatically give them the organization, protection, or confidence needed to confront an armed state.

For now, Iran is facing two realities at once: a population becoming poorer and a government prepared to impose extraordinary costs on open dissent.

The streets may be quieter than the inflation figures suggest, but quiet after mass killing is not the same as consent.

The question is not whether Iranians are angry.

It is when and under what conditions enough of them will believe that collective action is again possible despite the danger.