Iran wants to avoid a harsh Israel counter-strike, which would occur should Israeli civilians be wounded or killed in the attack.
By World Israel News Staff
Amid growing regional tensions and numerous threats issued from Tehran, the Iranian attack on Israel will likely be “measured” and restricted to military sites, according to an analysis by a veteran Israeli war correspondent.
Ron Ben Yishai, who has been a war journalist for some 50 years, said that Israeli intelligence sources believe that while the attack by Iran will last several days, it will be “limited” to military bases, installations, and other assets.
Iran will avoid targeting civilian sites and infrastructure, out of fear that Israel will respond with harsh counter-strikes, Ben Yishai wrote on Ynet.
Should Israeli civilians be killed in the attack, Iran’s nuclear sites, oil refineries, water supply, and other critical resources will immediately become targets of Israeli airstrikes, according to Ben Yishai’s analysis.
To avoid this scenario, which would prove seriously destabilizing for both Iran’s struggling economy, Tehran will engage in a restrained campaign exclusively focused on military targets.
Ben Yishai noted that Iran has likely learned a significant amount about Israel’s air defense systems, following the unprecedented aerial barrage it launched in April 2024.
Although some 99 percent of the projectiles fired by Iran were intercepted during the attack, several Emad missiles struck Nevatim Air Force base in the Negev desert.
Due to their success, Iran will likely ramp up the number of Emad missiles it will use in its upcoming barrage, Ben Yishai wrote.
In recent days, Iranian diplomats have reached out to their counterparts regarding their intention to strike Israel.
Caretaker Foreign Minister of Iran, Minister Ali Bagheri, phoned Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó to inform him that Tehran is preparing to attack the Jewish State.
Szijjártó called Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz regarding that announcement, with Katz confirming on social media platform X that “Iran has decided to attack.”