Political survival on the line: Likud holds explosive primary ahead of national vote

Some 140,000 Likud members head to the polls Monday for a fiercely contested primary that will determine who joins Benjamin Netanyahu on the party’s ticket — and could shape Israel’s next government ahead of the October 27 election.

The stakes are unusually high. Polls put Likud at just 22–24 seats, down from its current 32, while Netanyahu has secured unprecedented control over the slate, with eight handpicked candidates receiving reserved positions among the top 29. That leaves incumbents and newcomers battling over fewer realistic Knesset seats.

The vote is also a test of Likud’s future direction: whether the party base elevates harder-line figures such as Tally Gotliv, rewards established leaders like Amir Ohana and Eli Cohen, or signals dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s tightening grip. With the pro-Netanyahu bloc fighting to retain power, Monday’s winners could become ministers and key players in Israel’s next government.