Shabak: Another Guardian of the Walls operation is ‘only a matter of time’

While Israel has disrupted networks, intercepted weapons shipments, and degraded command structures, the core drivers of conflict remain firmly in place.

By Hezy Laing

A renewed rocket threat from Gaza is worrying Israeli security officials.

The head of Israel’s internal security service, the Shin Bet, delivered a stark warning this week, saying that another large‑scale confrontation similar to Operation Guardian of the Walls is “only a matter of time.”

His remarks come nearly five years after the May 10–21, 2021, conflict, underscoring how little the strategic landscape has shifted since that round of fighting.

Operation Guardian of the Walls, which unfolded over 11 intense days in May 2021, saw Hamas and Islamic Jihad fire more than 4,000 rockets toward Israeli cities.

The conflict exposed the depth of Gaza’s tunnel network, the sophistication of its rocket production, and the speed at which militant groups could mobilize—factors that continue to shape Israeli threat assessments today.

The IDF responded with large‑scale destruction of Hamas and Islamic Jihad rocket infrastructure.

Israeli intelligence had mapped out dozens of production sites, storage depots, and launch facilities, and the air force struck them systematically.

By the end of the operation, the IDF assessed that it had eliminated a substantial portion of Gaza’s domestic rocket‑manufacturing capacity, forcing terror groups to rebuild from scratch in the months that followed.

According to the Shin Bet chief, Hamas and other groups in Gaza have spent the years since 2021 rebuilding their capabilities, adapting their tactics, and replenishing their arsenals despite sustained Israeli pressure.

He noted that while Israel has disrupted networks, intercepted weapons shipments, and degraded command structures, the core drivers of conflict remain firmly in place.

“We are facing an enemy that learns, evolves, and prepares for the next round,” he said, emphasizing that deterrence alone cannot guarantee long‑term quiet.

Security officials stress that the warning is not meant to signal an imminent escalation but rather to highlight the cyclical nature of the Gaza arena.

The Shin Bet chief pointed to the rapid pace at which terrorists restore rocket production lines and rebuild tunnel infrastructure, even after significant Israeli strikes.

He also noted that internal Palestinian political tensions and external support from regional actors contribute to a volatile environment.

While the timing of the next confrontation is uncertain, the Shin Bet chief’s message was clear: Without a fundamental shift in Gaza’s political and military landscape, another operation on the scale of Guardian of the Walls is not a question of if, but when.