The final 650,000: Special ballots could change Israel’s political balance

The battle for control of Israel’s next government is far from over, with up to 650,000 special ballots potentially reshaping the Knesset and changing the balance of power at the last moment.

The so-called double-envelope ballots, cast by soldiers, reservists, diplomats, police officers, hospital patients, and displaced Israelis, could account for roughly 15 seats’ worth of votes. They undergo additional verification before being incorporated into the nationwide count, meaning early election projections could still change significantly.

Historically, these ballots have favored Zionist parties across the political spectrum, while reducing the relative electoral strength of ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties. In 2022, their inclusion cost United Torah Judaism a seat while giving Yisrael Beytenu an additional mandate. A similar shift affected Ra’am and Meretz in 2021.

With Netanyahu’s bloc currently short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, even one or two seats could prove decisive. The final impact will depend on how the special ballots are distributed, which parties cross the electoral threshold, and the remaining regular votes.

Until every ballot is counted, Israel’s political future remains unresolved.