Will the yellow line become Gaza’s new border?

Former IDF strategist Col. Rami Ben‑Shahar believes the line’s longevity depends entirely on Hamas’ future capabilities.

By Hezy Laing

Four months after the ceasefire took effect, the yellow ceasefire line still cuts the enclave in half, separating Israeli forces from Hamas terrorists and functioning as a de facto boundary.

President Trump’s 20‑point peace framework framed it as a provisional security line, to be maintained until Hamas disarms and a phased Israeli withdrawal becomes possible.

Even under the most extreme scenario, Israel would still retain a one‑kilometer buffer zone around Gaza’s perimeter, including the Philadelphi Route, long viewed by Israeli officials as a critical chokepoint for weapons smuggling.

Some analysts argue that the Yellow Line is already more than a temporary arrangement.

Security scholar Dr. Yael Morani says, “When a line holds for months and shapes military deployments, it becomes a political reality, even if no one wants to call it a border.”

She notes that the ceasefire has frozen forces in place, and neither side appears willing to risk destabilizing the arrangement.

Others see the line as a stopgap that will eventually give way to a more formal security structure.

Former IDF strategist Col. Rami Ben‑Shahar believes the line’s longevity depends entirely on Hamas’s future capabilities.

“If Hamas refuses to disarm, the Yellow Line will remain. If it weakens or fragments, Israel may feel confident enough to pull back toward the perimeter,” he says, adding that the buffer zone envisioned in the U.S. plan ensures Israel maintains strategic depth regardless of what happens inside Gaza.

Still, there are voices warning against assuming the line will harden into permanence.

Regional analyst Lina Haddad argues that the political environment is too fluid for long‑term predictions.

“The Yellow Line is a military arrangement, not a diplomatic one. Borders require agreements, recognition, and enforcement mechanisms. None of that exists here,” she says.

Haddad cautions that any shift—whether renewed fighting, internal Palestinian changes, or international pressure—could redraw the map again.

For now, the Yellow Line endures because it works: it separates combatants, reduces friction, and provides a framework for the fragile ceasefire.

Whether it becomes Gaza’s next border or fades with time will depend on decisions still far from settled.