IAF expects to stop most Iranian missile launches by end of week

The IDF noted Iran’s struggles to coordinate larger attacks, with personnel reportedly abandoning positions after single launches amid drone and aircraft threats.

By Hezy Laing

The Israeli Air Force (IAF), in coordination with U.S. forces, anticipates nearly halting Iran’s ability to launch significant missile attacks against Israel and regional targets by the end of the week, according to assessments from Israeli security officials and military briefings as of March 3, 2026.

This expectation stems from the rapid degradation of Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure during the ongoing U.S.-Israeli campaign, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion by Israel and Operation Epic Fury by the U.S., which began on February 28.

Israeli Defense Forces reports indicate that strikes have already destroyed approximately half of Iran’s estimated 400 ballistic missile launchers, with combined efforts targeting storage facilities, underground tunnels, and mobile units across provinces including Esfahan, Yazd, Lorestan, and Tehran.

Satellite imagery from March 1-2 shows bunker-buster impacts at sites like the Imam Ali Missile Base in Khorramabad, the Amand Missile Base, and the Imam Hussein Missile Base near Yazd, which housed long-range Khorramshahr missiles.

The IAF has conducted over 700 sorties, neutralizing more than 200 air defense systems and enabling air superiority over western Iran and Tehran, allowing precise follow-on strikes on missile-related targets.

Security officials stated that the pace of Iranian missile barrages—several waves on March 1 and 2—is expected to taper off significantly in the coming days due to these systematic attacks on launchers and command nodes.

The IDF noted Iran’s struggles to coordinate larger attacks, with personnel reportedly abandoning positions after single launches amid drone and aircraft threats.

U.S. and Israeli assessments suggest that 70-80% of remaining launchers could be eliminated by week’s end, severely limiting Iran’s retaliatory capacity despite its pre-conflict arsenal of around 2,500 missiles.

This progress aligns with broader campaign goals to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities, as articulated by U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz.

While Iran has continued sporadic launches targeting Israel, Gulf states, and U.S. assets, the combined force’s focus on suppression has reduced the scale and coordination of these responses.

Officials emphasize that operations will persist until objectives are met, potentially extending beyond the week, but the near-term suppression of missile threats represents a key milestone in establishing deterrence and protecting regional allies.

Transportation Minister Miri Regev said Israel is preparing to gradually reopen the country’s airspace next week, potentially starting as early as Sunday or Monday.

This follows a closure due to regional security developments.

Ben Gurion Airport will initially resume operations in an extremely limited format, prioritizing Israeli carriers like El Al for repatriation flights from 22 destinations in the US, Europe, and Asia to bring home stranded citizens.

Expansion will depend on ongoing security assessments.