IDF simulates Oct. 7–style surprise raids as Israel braces for terror infiltration via Jordan border

Even as Israel builds up forces, the terrain itself creates a dilemma: large stretches of the border remain porous, and smugglers innovate faster than bureaucracy.

By Shmuli Volkin, Jewish Breaking News

Israel’s security focus is shifting eastward. The IDF’s Central Command has launched a command-level drill to stress-test readiness for “extreme” scenarios across multiple arenas at once, specifically under manpower constraints.

At the center of the exercise is a scenario Israel’s planners increasingly take seriously: terrorist cells pushing toward Israel from the Jordanian frontier, including the possibility of Iran-backed Houthi operatives reaching Jordan via Syria to attempt ground infiltration.

The IDF is also drilling for the uglier reality along that long border: smuggling corridors used by criminal networks can double as pathways for terrorists, especially when pressure rises across the region.

For years, the Jordan Valley and Arava were treated as comparatively quiet sectors, especially after Israel’s peace treaty with Jordan. That assumption is eroding.

Israel has been reactivating old fortified positions and upgrading sections of the border with new barriers and surveillance, as the military warns of expanding weapons and drug smuggling and a potential mass-infiltration attempt from the east.

A major pillar of that response is the IDF’s 96th Division, created to reinforce defenses along Israel’s eastern border and provide rapid-response capability.

The IDF says the division completed its formation on an accelerated timetable and began operating along the eastern border for a range of defense missions.

“Success is defined as an opportunity that meets capability,” Central Command chief Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth said after the division’s first division-level exercise, praising the speed of the buildup.

Even as Israel builds up forces, the terrain itself creates a dilemma: large stretches of the border remain porous, and smugglers innovate faster than bureaucracy.

Israeli reporting describes a multilayer defense concept that combines refurbished outposts, deeper intelligence and defensive arrays, and a new ground barrier concept similar to the “Hourglass” obstacle used elsewhere, alongside a control center meant to tighten response times.

This is exactly why the Central Command drill matters: it’s not just about a single breach. It’s about simultaneous incidents, cascading alerts, and split-second prioritization when forces are thin.

The drill also trains for a nightmare scenario inside Judea and Samaria: an October 7-style coordinated raid targeting multiple communities at once, combined with mass disturbances across the sector.

The exercise reportedly factors in instability on the Palestinian side, including succession tensions and the risk of institutional breakdown, at the same time many Palestinians seek a return to pre-war routines and access to work in Israel.

The strategic logic is clear: Israel’s enemies and Iran’s proxy network look for seams. If Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and long-range threats pull resources outward, the eastern border and Judea and Samaria become tempting pressure points.

One of the bluntest takeaways from the reporting is the “force sparsity” challenge. Central Command is being asked to prepare for worst-case intensity while the IDF’s operational focus remains heavily loaded across other arenas. That tension is now being drilled explicitly, not quietly assumed away.

The immediate message from this exercise is deterrence through preparedness: Israel is training to deny Iran-backed terrorists the ability to replicate October 7 tactics from a different direction.

The longer-term question is speed: how quickly new defensive infrastructure, command-and-control upgrades, and reserve frameworks can mature before adversaries decide to test them for real.

IDFInfiltrationsecurity drill