‘For the Iranian regime, the destabilization of Jordan is a vital precursor for the strategic goal of turning Judea and Samaria into ‘another Gaza,’ said Col. (res.) Eran Lerman, vice president of JISS.
By Yaakov Lappin, JNS
In recent days, disturbing developments at the Jordan-Israel border have raised security concerns while serving as a reminder of attempts by Islamist forces to destabilize Judea and Samaria via the kingdom.
On Sunday, a Jordanian terrorist, Maher Dhiab Hussein, 39, from Udhruh managed to pass through Jordanian security checks at the Allenby Bridge Crossing.
Exiting his truck at the inspection terminal on the Israeli side, Hussein opened fire, murdering three Israeli guards before he was shot and killed by Israeli security officers.
The attack raised pressing questions about Jordan’s ability to monitor its side of the crossing.
On Monday, Israeli police made a significant interception at the southern Rabin Border Crossing, discovering 74 Glock handguns and 61 ammunition magazines hidden inside a vehicle.
The vehicle was attempting to enter Israel from Jordan, and two suspects, Israeli Bedouin residents of Bir Hadaj and the Yeruham area—were arrested.
The weapons were likely destined for criminal or terrorist use in Israel, police said.
The Israel Police has been running an operation called Emergency Brake—an effort led to crack down on arms smuggling from Jordan.
These operations are an essential component of preventing weapons from reaching terrorists in Judea and Samaria, as well as criminal elements.
Col. (res.) Eran Lerman, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), said, “Iran is using its bases in Syria and the Captagon [amphetamine]-running networks to bring in weapons into Jordan and from there to Samaria—the ‘River’ Jordan is a creek. They are also using Muslim Brotherhood infrastructures in Jordan to mobilize terrorists.”
Lerman emphasized that the IDF and the Shin Bet are well aware of these threats and are working to monitor the situation in the Jordan Valley, although Israeli forces cannot take direct action on the Jordanian side of the border.
He added that while Jordan’s military and General Intelligence Department are usually effective, they may be facing challenges at this time due to internal frustrations with “some Israeli positions.”
Still, the long-standing mutual interest in preventing subversion keeps cooperation between Israel and Jordan intact.
“Given Iran’s apparent decision not to retaliate directly for Haniyeh, reactivating the suicide bombings and subverting Jordan are potentially very important—and indeed all the more so when Hamas in Gaza is being ground to dust and Hezbollah is under pressure in Lebanon not to ignite a disastrous war,” he said.
In an analysis published by Lerman at the JISS on July 24, Lerman wrote that “the Iranian regime has intensified its efforts to subvert the Hashemite monarchy.”
He highlighted how the arrests of Iranian agents in March 2024, involved in smuggling arms to Muslim Brotherhood elements in Jordan, were part of Tehran’s campaign to destabilize the region.
Lerman noted, “For the Iranian regime, the destabilization of Jordan is a vital precursor for the strategic goal of turning Judea and Samaria into ‘another Gaza,’ as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei suggested back in 2014.
“The stability of the Kingdom (and thus the need to reduce economic and social strains) is a vital interest of both Israel and the West,” he wrote.
The residents of Judea and Samaria
Amatzia Baram, professor emeritus at the University of Haifa’s Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, says that Iran is pushing Palestinians in Judea and Samaria to join the war against Israel, with financial backing from Iran and Hamas.
“The Iranians have been encouraging the residents of Judea and Samaria to join the war from the day after the massacre in the western Negev, but until the past two, three months, it did not succeed. The problem was not weapons—there were plenty already by October 7. The problem was the desire, and only now are [Palestinian] youths starting to heat up.”
According to Baram, Iranian and Hamas funds are being used to recruit terrorists who are also struggling to find work and who identify with Gaza.
He added that Iran uses nationalistic attacks by Israeli “hilltop youth” to pour fuel on the fire, for propaganda recruitment purposes in Arabic.
“The Iranians understand that for Israel to cease fire in Gaza—and that’s what they want—they need to apply more pressure. [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah is doing the maximum [from Lebanon]—a war of attrition—but he and Tehran do not want a full war with Israel,” said Baram.
The Houthis in Yemen have reduced the intensity of their attacks after the Israeli Air Force bombed Hodeidah Port on July 20, and hence the Iranians seek to “stir up Judea and Samaria,” he added.
While most of the Palestinian population in Judea and Samaria has not yet joined the violence, many youths have, the professor said.
Baram noted that the arms smuggling from Jordan into Israel has become particularly problematic since the start of 2024. “I saw the beginnings of this over a year ago, but there’s been a significant uptick since January.”
The smuggled items range from handguns to M-16 rifles, magazines, and parts, with hundreds of weapons seized, although the full scale of what has not been intercepted remains unknown, he said.
Baram believes that at least part of these smuggling operations is funded by Iranian money, though he added it was not clear which smuggling runs were paid for by Tehran.
“Weapons smuggling from Jordan is a long-established and lucrative business. Palestinians in Judea and Samaria, as well as Israeli Arabs, make for good markets, and a lot of money changes hands.”
Most of the smuggling is carried out by Bedouin and may serve criminal purposes, but the presence of such arms in the region greatly increases the threat of terrorism. Iran is keen to smuggle industrial-scale explosives into Judea and Samaria, though it has largely not succeeded in doing this so far, said Baram.
Regarding the capacity of Israel’s security forces to manage the threat, Baram pointed to the formation of the Israeli Border Police’s Matilan unit, which is tasked with intercepting arms. The unit has seized around 800 weapons since the end of 2022, he said.
“The [IDF’s] Jordan Valley Brigade, from the northern Dead Sea to the Sea of Galilee, is also involved.” What remains unknown is the quantity of weapons that got through, he said.
“The Jordanians work closely with us. The pinpoint intelligence cooperation is built on cooperation with Jordan. Jordanian patrols sometimes shoot at smugglers. But this is a long, mostly unsealed border,” Baram said.