Iran changed missile strategies that enjoyed a higher success rate by end of war – report

Longer-range and even hypersonic missiles were launched from deeper inside the country, at varied intervals and targets.

By Batya Jerenberg, World Israel News

Iran changed missile strategies as its 12-day war with Israel went on, leading to more successful strikes by the end that showed even a three-layer defensive wall could not be perfect, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

Analysts who examined open-source data from Operation Rising Lion to reach their findings concluded that “as the war went on, Iran fired fewer missiles, but its success rate rose,” the report said.

During the first several days, when launching dozens of missiles at a time, only up to 8% of the massive projectiles got through. But by the end, while firing fewer at once, 16% hit Israeli cities and even some IDF bases.

Iran’s most successful attacks were on Day 12, when 10 out of 27 missiles penetrated Israel’s multi-layer defense, according to Mora Deitch, head of Tel Aviv University’s Data Analytics Center at its Institute for National Security Studies.

Deitch added an important caveat: Iran’s success rate did not include any missiles that might have been allowed to hit Israeli territory because the IDF concluded they would strike open areas.

Although the army denied it, Israel’s supply of Arrow interceptors was reportedly running low as the war went on, and this tactic would save them for more life-threatening attacks.

The Islamic Republic tested Israel’s shields and adapted throughout the war, the report said.

Its military used a “trial and error” approach, analysts told The Wall Street Journal, firing at various times of day and night and at different intervals, at targets across the country rather than only militarily valuable sites.

They also used different kinds of missiles, including at least two of its most sophisticated hypersonic Fattah-1s, which travel at more than 10 times the speed of sound and have detachable warheads that can maneuver away from interceptors.

Part of their tactics included launching missiles from a “wider range of locations deep inside Iran,” the report said.

In general, considering the large distance from Iran, the IDF concentrated most of its own air attacks on the western part of the country closest to Israel, although Israeli jets also hit important nuclear sites deeper inside Iran.

Israel has the Arrow 3 interceptor to hit ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, the Arrow 2 for atmospheric interception, the American THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), and its own David’s Sling for cruise missiles and smaller, tactical ballistic missiles for medium-range protection.

Israel’s Iron Dome system is only capable of hitting short-range rockets and was not involved in defending against the Iranian attacks.

The IDF reported in its postwar analysis that overall, 86% of the Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted.