‘Iran deal not certain; fighting could restart in 24 hours’ — analyst

The Israeli expert compared the possible agreement to the Obama-era nuclear deal.

By World Israel News Staff

An Israeli analyst expressed a less-than-optimistic perspective on the potential deal with Iran, which President Donald Trump and media reports have portrayed as imminent. He suggested the proposal could collapse and that hostilities could resume within as little as 24 hours.

Avner Vilan, a former senior defense official and expert on Iran’s nuclear program, expressed skepticism regarding Iran’s willingness to give up its nuclear material — a condition Trump has repeatedly presented as a red line for the United States.

Speaking to Radio 103FM, Vilan said Trump still has several options on the table as Iran publicly insists it is unwilling to end its nuclear development program or surrender its stockpile of enriched uranium.

“We need to make sure that Iran has no way to advance toward nuclear material for a bomb,” Vilan stressed, saying that in order to achieve that goal, Trump could “return to intense fighting.”

He warned that a resumption of hostilities could occur within the next 24 hours.

Vilan acknowledged that even if fighting resumes, the likely outcome would be a return to the same regional stalemate that currently exists.

He emphasized that Iran’s strongest incentive remains the possible lifting of economic sanctions, as well as the release of frozen Iranian assets held abroad under U.S. restrictions.

Vilan warned that if the United States provides economic relief in exchange for Iran ending its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Washington would lose one of its most significant sources of leverage in forcing Tehran into a nuclear agreement.

“Regarding the nuclear issue, at best we will get a deal like Obama’s agreement,” Vilan told Radio 103FM, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated under former President Barack Obama.

He also noted that previous demands — including requiring Iran to end support for its regional proxy groups and halt ballistic missile production — no longer appear to be central conditions in discussions surrounding a long-term ceasefire or diplomatic agreement.