Iran has lost control over 80% of Hormuz traffic: Report

Tehran’s threats to impose transit fees appear to have failed as commercial ships increasingly bypass Iranian oversight.

By World Israel News Staff

Iran has lost significant control over maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with roughly 80 percent of vessels now using a route that Tehran has not approved, according to new shipping data.

The findings suggest that Iran’s efforts to impose control over the critical maritime chokepoint — including threats to charge transit fees — have had limited success, as commercial operators turn to a route near Oman that avoids Iranian threats.

“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, an organization that uses satellite data and transponders to track real-time shipping patterns, told CNN.

Despite declarations from Tehran that it would impose tolls on vessels traveling through the waterway, shipping data indicates that Iran has struggled to enforce such a system.

Approximately 80 percent of vessels currently using the strait are reportedly taking a route near Oman’s territorial waters — a passage that does not involve Iranian transit fees and that Tehran has previously opposed.

“Iran’s request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing,” Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, told CNN.

“So the Oman route absolutely makes the most sense.”

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNN that major Gulf oil exporters are continuing to use the Strait of Hormuz, but are taking additional precautions to reduce the risk of Iranian attacks or interference.

Among those measures is switching off vessel transponders, making it more difficult for Iranian forces to track the ships’ movements.

According to Lipow, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have also chartered Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) — the largest oil tankers used to transport crude — to move oil through the potentially dangerous waters.

Those vessels then transfer their cargo to smaller tankers near Oman, outside what Lipow described as Iran’s firing range. The arrangement allows Gulf states to continue exporting oil while reducing the exposure of their largest vessels to potential attacks or interference.

The longer-term future of shipping through Hormuz, however, remains uncertain. Oman and Iran are reportedly continuing discussions over an arrangement that would allow the two countries to share revenues from vessels transiting the waterway.

Such an agreement could give Tehran some degree of economic benefit from the traffic while allowing Oman to retain a role in managing the alternative route.

For now, however, the shipping data indicates that Iran’s attempts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz have not produced the results Tehran sought.

“It is fair to say that Iran has partially lost control of the strait,” Lipow said