Israel believes Iranian regime likely to collapse after the war

Israeli assessments suggest that the Islamic Republic will not fall during the war but will likely collapse in the months following.

By World Israel News Staff

The Iranian regime will not collapse during the current conflict with Israel and the United States, Israeli intelligence indicates, though the Islamic Republic is expected to fall within a matter of months once the war is completed.

On Sunday, the Hebrew daily Yedioth Ahronoth published a report citing an Israeli official who said that during the planning for Operation Roaring Lion, Israel’s military was convinced that even if a sustained campaign could potentially topple the Iranian regime, the collapse would take a number of months to unfold.

“At no stage did we think the regime would fall during the war,” the official said.

“The assessments were that the regime’s collapse would come several months after the war. No one thought the public could take to the streets while under bombardment.”

The assessment comes as the United States has intensified its strikes against Iranian targets in recent days.

Israeli officials believe the Trump administration may be considering a major escalation, including a potential move to take control of the oil terminal on Iran’s Kharg Island— a step described as a possible game changer that could severely damage Tehran’s economic lifeline.

Should the US carry out such an operation, the official said, it would cripple Iran’s ability to generate revenue, making it difficult for Tehran to pay salaries to state workers.

That, in turn, could potentially trigger internal instability, culminating in regime collapse.

In the meantime, the US is reportedly holding preliminary contacts with Iran regarding the possibility of peace talks.

Qatar is said to be pushing for a deal, while President Donald Trump is believed to favor terms that would amount to a near-total surrender by Iran.