Iran’s ability to weaponize Hormuz ‘significantly undermined’

“While Iran can still threaten shipping and energy infrastructure, its ability to impose economic costs on the United States has been diminished,” said Ruth Pines Feldman, a senior research fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security.

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have climbed above pre-war levels, undermining Iranian attempts to hold the global energy market hostage even as attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have intensified.

According to international media reports, the seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on Oct. 1, with daily volumes reaching as high as 22.5 million bpd between Sept. 27 and 29.

Exports averaged 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February 2026, before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to Reuters.

Those gains have come despite a rise in Iranian attacks on shipping.

Ruth Pines Feldman, a senior research fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security, told JNS that the success of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) in keeping oil flowing through Hormuz rests on a combination of military tools.

These include “naval protection, intelligence, surveillance, and mine-clearing operations,” she said.

“By removing mines and clearing maritime routes, U.S. forces have helped restore commercial shipping and maintain the flow of Gulf oil despite Iranian threats.”

She noted that the Oct. 1 export figure, which exceeded pre-war levels, demonstrated a clear strategic shift: “Iran’s ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as an economic weapon has been significantly undermined.”

Feldman said the economic effect extends beyond the Gulf.

“By keeping Gulf exports flowing while maintaining pressure on Iranian oil exports, Washington is weakening Tehran’s economic leverage and helping stabilize global oil supplies and prices, including at the U.S. pump,” she said.

“This reduces the risk that an energy-price shock will generate domestic political pressure on the Trump administration to limit its options or de-escalate prematurely.”

She outlined three paths available to Washington going forward: “Sustaining economic and military pressure until Tehran changes its behavior, pursuing negotiations from a position of greater strength, or continuing to weaken the regime in the hope that mounting economic and internal pressures could eventually lead to its collapse from within.”

“While Iran can still threaten shipping and energy infrastructure, its ability to impose economic costs on the United States has been diminished,” she added.

For Israel, Feldman said, the development translates into greater strategic flexibility.

“With less risk of an oil-driven economic backlash in the United States, Washington may have more room to sustain military pressure on Iran, while Israel gains greater freedom of action against Iranian threats,” she said.

“The success could also create conditions for further operations against the Houthis in Yemen and other Iranian-backed proxies by reducing the economic leverage Tehran can use to deter or constrain U.S. action.”

The central challenge now, Feldman argued, is maintaining what has been achieved.

“Whether the next phase involves sustained pressure, expanded military operations, negotiations, or growing internal instability in Iran, the ability to keep the Strait of Hormuz open makes it harder for Tehran to dictate the terms of the confrontation,” she said.

“The challenge now is to sustain maritime security and prevent Iran from rebuilding its capacity to disrupt global energy flows.”

‘Still incredibly high risk’

Jemima Shelley, a senior research analyst at United Against Nuclear Iran and a specialist on Iranian ghost fleets, illicit shipping networks, and oil-smuggling routes, told JNS that while the export rebound is a positive sign, significant risks remain.

“Yes, Gulf oil [not including Iran] exports have returned to around pre-war levels,” she said. “Most of these laden tankers are passing the Strait of Hormuz with their AIS [Automatic Identification System] signals turned off, and these transits are often facilitated by U.S. forces.”

She cautioned that the security situation had worsened even as traffic increased.

“While tankers are managing to transit the Strait, the security situation has escalated. Iran’s recent slew of strikes, starting around September 29, have been particularly targeting tankers,” she said. “So, although more tankers are transiting, it is still incredibly high risk.”

Shelley said Iran itself remains largely cut off from exporting its crude.

“The increased oil export numbers do not include Iranian crude. Tankers laden with Iranian crude and petrochemicals have mostly been unable to depart the Gulf of Oman due to the U.S. blockade,” she said.

“Iran has not been able to export any crude since the reinstatement of the blockade on July 14. Since then, only a handful of small tankers carrying Iranian LPG have managed to breach the blockade.”

On the global price impact, Shelley said the rebound in Gulf exports should ease the risk of a broader oil shock, though it will not resolve every source of pressure at U.S. gas pumps.

“These exports will contribute to minimizing the risk of a global oil shock,” she said.

“Much of the oil coming out of the Persian Gulf is headed to East Asia, meaning less competition and better prices for cargoes headed to the U.S. However, there are multiple issues contributing to U.S. oil prices at the pump, including a shortage of refining capacity in key areas.”