Israeli defense officials ‘shocked’ by speed of Iran’s military recovery

Israel and the US attacked more than 2,600 missile and military-industrial targets during the roughly 40-day war, carrying out about 30,000 attacks.

By Vered Weiss, World Israel News

Israeli defense officials are reassessing Iran’s ability to rebuild its military capabilities after the country resumed weapons production far faster than expected following the early 2026 war, The Jerusalem Post reported.

Both IDF and Mossad officials have been surprised by the pace of Iran’s recovery, particularly its ballistic missile capabilities.

The IDF had taken the lead in evaluating the damage inflicted on Iran’s defense industry during the conflict.

The assessment marks a shift from the military’s position in the months after the war ended in April.

IDF experts had maintained that the scale of the strikes had set Iran’s military-industrial capabilities back by years, despite foreign media reports questioning some Israeli assessments.

Israel and the US attacked more than 2,600 missile and military-industrial targets during the roughly 40-day war, carrying out about 30,000 attacks.

IDF officials said afterward that Iran’s military industry had sustained extensive damage.

The IDF had previously underestimated Tehran’s ability to recover from strikes. After Israel attacked 20 critical ballistic missile and military-industrial targets in October 2024, officials estimated Iranian missile production had been delayed by at least a year. By early 2025, however, Iran had restored its high-speed production rate.

Israel then struck about 100 missile and military-industrial targets in June 2025. Iran again rebuilt production faster than expected, with its estimated arsenal growing from about 1,300 missiles in June 2025 to 2,500 by February 2026.

Senior Israeli defense officials now acknowledge that Tehran has developed methods to prioritize rebuilding missiles and other military threats despite extensive destruction elsewhere, the Post reported. The New York Times previously reported that Iran used bulldozers to regain access to underground missile facilities more quickly than Israel anticipated.

The Post also reported that Iran has resumed producing new weapons at a significantly faster pace than Israeli officials expected.

The IDF said it continues to monitor Iran’s rebuilding efforts and update its assessments.

“Since then, the IDF has closely and continuously followed the Iranian efforts to rehabilitate and to newly rebuild their capabilities. The IDF’s evaluation and situation assessments are constantly updated and brought in line with actual developments,” the military said.

The IDF declined to provide specific estimates of Iran’s rebuilding pace, saying doing so could expose its sources and methods.