Israelis divided on war outcomes as elections approach

More than 40% of Israelis oppose a ceasefire with Hezbollah under current conditions, while fewer than one-quarter support such a move.

By TPS

Israelis remain sharply divided over the outcomes of the military campaigns against Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas as the country moves towards elections, a Hebrew University of Jerusalem survey found.

The poll, released on Sunday, offers one of the first snapshots of public opinion since ceasefires took hold in mid-April.

Lead researcher Dr. Nimrod Nir told The Press Service of Israel the results show dramatic trends. ״

According to Nir, the findings suggest that while Israelis broadly support continued security efforts, there is no clear consensus on whether the campaigns have strengthened Israel’s position or what strategy should come next.

“Pessimism and optimism in the Israeli public have shifted. Many don’t believe the war with Iran has contributed significantly to Israel’s security,” Nir said.

“Others, however, support the continuation of the war for as long as it takes, which shows resilience,” he added.

On the Iranian front, only about half of respondents believe Iran has been weakened by the recent campaign.

Nearly 30% said Iran’s position has not significantly changed, while 15% believe it has actually grown stronger.

Assessments of Israel’s own position are similarly split: 38% said Israel has strengthened, while roughly one-third believe it has weakened.

On the northern front, more than 40% of Israelis oppose a ceasefire with Hezbollah under current conditions, while fewer than one-quarter support such a move.

Yet despite that opposition, nearly 60% back direct negotiations with Lebanon and the possibility of a peace agreement.

However, the public remains skeptical about the likelihood of such diplomacy succeeding, Nir said. Only a minority believe a long-term agreement with Lebanon is likely in the near future.

In Gaza, opinion is deeply divided over the next phase of the war. About 41% support resuming intensive military operations, even at the risk of a confrontation with the United States, while roughly 30% favor pursuing a permanent ceasefire even without fully disarming Hamas.

At the same time, nearly 60% of respondents said they do not believe Hamas can be fully dismantled militarily in the coming years, reflecting growing doubt about the feasibility of one of Israel’s central war aims.

The survey, conducted April 23 to 24 among 1,325 Israeli citizens, is a representative sample of the population and allows for comparison with previous rounds of data collected during earlier phases of the conflict, Nir said.

Beyond the battlefield, the survey reflects deep concern about Israel’s direction, with over 70% supporting an inquiry into the failures that led to Hamas’ massacre of October 7, 2023.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has resisted calls for a formal state commission of inquiry, calling it “politically biased.”

Such commissions, led by senior Supreme Court justices, can summon witnesses, collect evidence, and make recommendations, though the government is not required to follow them.

At the same time, two-thirds of respondents report dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s performance.

Nearly one-third of Israelis say they are considering leaving the country, while large majorities express concern about rising antisemitism and growing international isolation.

By law, Israel must hold national elections by October 27, 2026.

Researcher Asa Shapira from Tel Aviv University’s Department of Communication Studies, who was not involved in the survey, told TPS-IL the findings reflect a growing gap between public expectations and reality.

“The study shows a deep tension between what Israelis expect and what they experience,” he told TPS-IL.

“More than a desire to keep fighting, this reflects frustration with the inability to reach decisive outcomes and a sense of being trapped in repeated rounds of conflict with no clear horizon.”