Likud primary draws 76,000 voters, 54% turnout

In this primary, Netanyahu has demanded and received the power to bring in eight new faces, whom he views as an improvement over several current MKs.

By David Israel, TPS

The Likud primary ended officially at 9 p.m. on Monday with a 54% Turnout, or 76,068 Voters. This figure is somewhat lower than the last Likud primary four years ago, when about 58% of the eligible party members voted.

The official results are expected to be announced on Tuesday afternoon, however, at this point, the race for the top of the Likud slate is most likely among Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, Ministers Eli Cohen and Yariv Levin, and MK Tali Gottliv.

Minister Miri Regev is fighting to maintain her position among the party’s leading women, as do Ministers Gila Gamliel and May Golan.

One hundred and twenty-one candidates are competing for a spot on the Likud Knesset slate, with the polls predicting anywhere between 25 and 35 Likud mandates in the general election.

However, should Likud be able to assemble a majority coalition government, cabinet ministers are likely to give up their Knesset seats as part of the “Norwegian Law,” allowing the next people on the slate to become lawmakers.

In the Likud primaries, the battle between the “deal makers,” who cobble organized slates, and the independent candidates is the central force shaping the party’s Knesset list.

The organized voting blocs include large workers’ committees, such as those at Israel Aerospace Industries and the Israel Airports Authority, as well as mayors, local council heads, and vote contractors.

The voting blocs’ leaders draw up “recommended lists” of 12 candidates each for the national slate and instruct their members to vote according to those lists.

The beneficiaries are veteran MKs and ministers, such as David Bitan and David “Dudi” Amsalem, who have spent years building alliances and maintaining close relationships with activists across the country.

Another major beneficiary is the party chairman, in this case Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who uses this system to promote his preferred candidates to realistic slots.

In this primary, Netanyahu has demanded and received the power to bring in eight new faces, whom he views as an improvement over several current MKs he believes have grown stale and who have been suspected at one time of plotting a coup against him.

The deals system is particularly effective when turnout is low, because organized groups then make up a larger share of the voters and can exert an outsized influence on the results.

The ratio of organized to independent voters in Monday’s primary has been estimated at 40:60, respectively.

The independent voters are not tied to organized groups and generally make their choices individually. Their votes are influenced by media exposure, social media presence, public visibility, and ideological positions.

This group can benefit candidates such as Tali Gottliv, Amir Ohana, Boaz Bismuth and Moshe Saada, who may not be part of the major voting deals but have strong public profiles and perform well among independent voters.