New poll delivers blow to left as Winter’s party gains ground

The shift marks a dramatic change from Channel 14’s initial poll conducted immediately after Winter announced his entry into politics.

By Eliana Fleming, JFeed

A new poll published Thursday evening on Israel’s Channel 14 reveals challenging numbers for Israel’s left-wing bloc while showing a notable debut for Ofer Winter’s newly launched political party.

Just three days after announcing the formation of “Amcha Yisrael” (Your People Israel), retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter has achieved a significant milestone: his party crosses the electoral threshold for the first time, securing four Knesset seats in the survey. (Other recent polls have credited Winter with six or even seven mandates.)

The shift marks a dramatic change from Channel 14’s initial poll conducted immediately after Winter announced his entry into politics, which showed “Amcha Yisrael” earning only 2.1% of the vote, below the 3.25% threshold required for Knesset representation. Within days of the party’s official launch, Winter has now entered the parliamentary picture, reshaping the distribution of seats.

According to the complete survey results, Likud leads with 31 seats. Yesh Atid, the centrist party led by Yair Lapid, receives 23 mandates, while the ultra-Orthodox Shas party takes 10 and the Democrats secure 9.

United Torah Judaism (representing Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox parties), Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power), and the Joint List each win 7 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu earns 6 mandates, Ra’am (an Arab Islamist party) gets 5, while Religious Zionism and Winter’s “Amcha Yisrael” close the list with 4 seats each.

Several parties fall short of the electoral threshold, including Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party at 1.7%, Beit Zioni-Miluimnikim (a reservists’ party led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel) at 1.1%, Blue and White at 0.4%, HaAchdut at 0.3%, and Noam at 0.3%.

When divided into political blocs, the right-wing camp reaches 63 seats, a governing majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The left-wing bloc stands at 45 mandates, while Arab parties collectively hold 12 seats.