New poll shows Mamdani with 14-point lead, narrowing if Sliwa or Cuomo drops out

“In a head-to-head scenario between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani leads 44.6% to 40.7%, with nearly 15% undecided,” AARP stated.

By Andrew Bernard, JNS

A poll in the New York City mayoral race released on Monday shows state representative Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, with a double-digit lead in a three-way race against independent, former Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo and the Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa.

The AARP/Gotham poll of 1,040 likely voters shows Mamdani leading with 43.2% of the vote against Cuomo’s 28.9% and Sliwa’s 19.4%.

But those margins would tighten considerably if either of the trailing candidates were to drop out of the race.

“In a head-to-head scenario between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani leads 44.6% to 40.7%, with nearly 15% undecided,” AARP stated.

“If Cuomo were to drop out instead, Sliwa’s support would jump 10 points from August, reaching 31.5%.”

In that scenario, the poll shows Mamdani with 46.8% of the vote and 21.8% undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The Sliwa campaign told JNS that the poll “might as well have been paid for and printed at Cuomo headquarters with his logo on it.”

“Even with questions slanted in his favor, it still confirms what New Yorkers know: Curtis Sliwa’s campaign is surging and our voters are not going anywhere,” Daniel Kurzyna, spokesman for Sliwa told JNS.

“The overwhelming majority of Sliwa supporters would not touch Andrew Cuomo with a 10-foot pole,” Kurzyna said.

“They will vote for Curtis, and that is what is driving the panic inside Cuomo’s camp.”

“Curtis is not dropping out,” he added. “Andrew Cuomo already lost, resigned in disgrace to avoid impeachment and empowered the radical left that gave us Zohran Mamdani.”

The Cuomo campaign touted the race as a “dead heat” between the former governor and the assemblyman if Sliwa were to drop out, citing the 10-point swing in the head-to-head match up since AARP/Gotham’s poll in late August.

“As New Yorkers see this reality, they’ll discard the spoiler Curtis Sliwa and rally behind Cuomo to save the city,” the Cuomo campaign stated.

“Voters don’t buy Mamdani’s divisive, extreme politics or believe that a 34-year-old, who’s never held a real job, is ready to run the greatest city in the world.”

Only twice has Mamdani cracked 50% in general election polling, with many voters likely alienated by his left-wing policy positions, including calling for government-run grocery stores and free buses, as well as his staunch opposition to Israel in a city that is home to about a million Jews.

Among other anti-Israel statements, Mamdani has said that he would have Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrested should the premier come to New York City and has accused the Jewish state of committing “genocide” in Gaza.