Rising Crescent: The new Sunni coalition that may replace the Shiite threat to Israel

These states do not form a formal alliance, but their converging interests—countering Iran, stabilizing energy markets, and projecting Sunni influence—are drawing them closer.

By Hezy Laing

A quiet but unmistakable realignment is taking shape across the Middle East, where a cluster of powerful Sunni Muslim states—Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Pakistan—are edging toward a loose strategic coalition that could redefine the region’s balance of power.

For decades, Israel’s primary regional threat perception centered on the Shiite axis led by Iran, supported by Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, and various militias in Iraq and Yemen.

But as the Sunni world recalibrates its ambitions, a new configuration is emerging that may one day rival or even overshadow the traditional Shiite challenge.

Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest economy with a GDP exceeding $1 trillion, is pursuing an assertive foreign policy under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, expanding defense ties with Pakistan and exploring security understandings with Turkey and Egypt.

Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, fields NATO’s second‑largest army and has dramatically expanded its drone, missile, and naval capabilities.

Egypt, with more than 100 million citizens and one of the world’s largest militaries, remains a central pillar of Sunni power despite economic struggles.

Qatar, flush with natural gas wealth and host to the massive Al Udeid Air Base, wields outsized diplomatic influence.

Pakistan, the only Muslim‑majority nation with nuclear weapons, maintains deep military ties with Riyadh and has historically provided training and manpower to Gulf states.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el‑Sisi has notably shifted tone on Israel, recently stating that the “Egyptian army is capable of defeating Israel once again.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said recently at the UN, “Just as Hitler was stopped by the alliance of humanity 70 years ago, Netanyahu and his murder network must be stopped by the alliance of humanity.”

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has reverted to its classic antisemitic tone – which it downplayed ever since the Abraham Accords were signed.

These states do not form a formal alliance, but their converging interests—countering Iran, stabilizing energy markets, and projecting Sunni influence—are drawing them closer.

Their combined population exceeds 600 million, and their collective defense spending surpasses $150 billion annually, dwarfing Iran’s estimated $25 billion budget.

For Israel, this emerging Sunni bloc is a paradox: Several of these states cooperate quietly with Jerusalem on intelligence and security matters, yet their long‑term ambitions could create a new strategic landscape in which Sunni power, not Shiite militancy, becomes the dominant regional force.

Historically, Israel faced Sunni coalitions during the 1948, 1967, and 1973 wars, when Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq coordinated military campaigns.

Today’s Sunni powers are far more technologically advanced, globally connected, and economically influential.

While none currently seek confrontation with Israel, their growing coordination—especially if driven by shifting U.S. involvement or regional crises—could reshape Israel’s threat matrix in ways that extend beyond the familiar Iranian challenge.

The Middle East is entering a new era in which the Sunni world’s internal cohesion may become as strategically significant as the Shiite axis that has dominated headlines for decades.