Support for two-state solution collapses – including among Palestinians

Less than a third of Palestinians and roughly a quarter of Israelis support the two-state solution, new poll shows.

By David Rosenberg, World Israel News

A large majority of Israelis and Palestinians oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, according to a new Gallup survey released ahead of the third anniversary of the October 7 massacre, revealing a dramatic collapse in support for the two-state solution over the past 14 years.

The survey, published Tuesday, found that 65% of Israelis oppose a two-state solution, compared with just 26% who support it.

Among Palestinians living in Judea and Samaria and eastern Jerusalem, 58% oppose the proposal, while 32% support it.

The findings represent a striking reversal from 2012, when 61% of Israelis and 66% of Palestinians supported the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

Support has fallen by 35 percentage points among Israelis and approximately 34 points among Palestinians since then.

The results also indicate that the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre and the subsequent war in Gaza have not significantly changed public attitudes toward Palestinian statehood, which were already overwhelmingly negative immediately before the attack.

In 2023, just 25% of Israelis and 26% of Palestinians surveyed supported a two-state solution. Israeli support has remained virtually unchanged since then, while Palestinian support has increased modestly.

The Palestinian figures exclude residents of the Gaza Strip, where Gallup has been unable to conduct surveys since the war began because of security concerns.

One of the survey’s most significant findings was the sharp political divide among Israelis over Palestinian statehood.

Among Israelis who approve of their country’s current leadership, just 5% support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, while 91% oppose it.

By contrast, support rises to 43% among Israelis who disapprove of the country’s leadership, a gap of 38 percentage points.

Among Palestinians, attitudes toward statehood were considerably less dependent on whether respondents approved of their political leadership, with only a seven-point difference between supporters and opponents of the leadership.

The survey also revealed widespread pessimism about the possibility of lasting peace, even among those who favor Palestinian independence.

Just 22% of Israelis and 21% of Palestinians believe that permanent peace will ever be achieved.

Among Israelis who support a two-state solution, however, 73% believe lasting peace will eventually be possible, compared with 15% who do not.

Palestinian supporters of the proposal were substantially more pessimistic. Only 36% believe lasting peace will eventually be achieved, while 59% expect the conflict to continue indefinitely.

The findings suggest that even among Palestinians who favor an independent state, many do not believe its establishment would necessarily bring an end to the conflict with Israel.

Gallup observed that public attitudes have remained remarkably consistent despite three years of war and profound political upheaval.

“Views on fundamental questions of peace and Palestinian statehood remain stable and pessimistic on both sides of the conflict,” the polling organization concluded.

The findings are consistent with a separate Pew Research Center survey published in September, which found that Israelis and Palestinians overwhelmingly doubt the possibility of peaceful coexistence between Israel and an independent Palestinian state.

That survey found that only 17% of Israelis and 21% of Palestinians in Judea and Samaria and eastern Jerusalem believe the two states could coexist peacefully.

Meanwhile, 56% of Israelis and 68% of Palestinians said they did not believe such coexistence was possible.

When asked to explain their pessimism, Israeli respondents frequently cited security concerns and the danger that an independent Palestinian state could pose to Israel.

“This is our land alone,” one Jewish Israeli woman told Pew researchers.

“Palestine cannot be divided into two states,” a Palestinian woman responded.