The next Iran ‘nightmare’: The nuclear material

While Trump is opposed to U.S. “boots on the ground,” he may need to decide if U.S. nuclear and logistics specialists count.

By Michael Rubin, Middle East Forum

Early in the morning of June 22, 2025, Iran time, U.S. bombers dropped bunker buster bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

President Donald Trump warned Iran that the United States could hit several other targets if Iran did not stand down.

Despite the Iranian government’s bluster—and its warning that it could target American bases in the region and Americans worldwide—there is no mitigating the damage Trump’s actions did to the Islamic Republic, its ambitions, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s legitimacy.

While Trump is prone to hyperbole, simply celebrating the destruction of these key nuclear sites is not enough.

Khamenei may speak about his willingness to become a martyr, and perhaps Trump will need to grant his wish, but the result will be the same: the end of any meaningful nuclear program in the Islamic Republic.

When the smoke clears and when Khamenei—or his successors—do the inevitable and surrender their nuclear program, then it will need to be extricated from Iran.

Here, there is precedent. In 1991, South Africa’s Apartheid regime both acknowledged its own secret nuclear weapons program and agreed to forfeit it.

Even with a fully compliant government, first under P.W. Botha and then Nelson Mandela, it still took 19 years for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to certify the program’s end.

In 2003, when Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi decided to come in from the cold, U.S. and British specialists rushed in to physically dismantle his industrial base so that he could not change his mind.

The question then becomes who will physically remove Iran’s nuclear material. Many diplomats might say that is a job for the IAEA, but it is doubtful the United States, let alone Israel, will trust the IAEA given its own partisanship and history of ineffectiveness.

Since the Israel-Iran conflict began, former IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has been particularly partisan in his antagonism toward Israel.

While Trump is opposed to U.S. “boots on the ground,” he may need to decide if U.S. nuclear and logistics specialists count.

If not, perhaps then he should turn to allies.

Here, India could play a key role, given that they are perhaps the only country in the world that has the trust of the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Indian specialists might truck it to Chabahar and then ship it to India for inspection, analysis and safe-keeping.

Whatever Trump decides, the worst option would be to rest on laurels and stand down, for the danger of loose nuclear material getting into the hands of terrorists or irregular forces will remain high until it can be secured and spirited out of Iran.