Three years after Oct. 7, Israelis question whether their country is safer

More than half of Israelis, both Jewish and Arab citizens, believe the war has increased divisions within Israeli society.

By Pesach Benson, TPS

Three years after the Hamas attack that triggered the Gaza war, fewer than half of Israelis believe the country is safer than it was before Oct. 7, while fewer than one-quarter believe their children will live in a better reality, according to a new study highlighting a deepening crisis of confidence in Israel’s future.

The survey, conducted by Dr. Nimrod Nir of the Agam Institute and Dr. Gayil Talshir of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, found that 36% of Israelis are pessimistic about the country’s future, compared with 33% who are optimistic.

Both figures have declined compared with previous years, suggesting that uncertainty, rather than either optimism or pessimism, is becoming increasingly prevalent.

The findings point to a public still struggling with the consequences of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack and the war that followed.

Less than half of Israelis said Israel is safer today than it was before the attack and the outbreak of the war. Nearly one-third said the country is less safe.

The sense of uncertainty extends beyond immediate security concerns.

Fewer than one-quarter of respondents believe their children will live in a better reality, raising questions about how three years of war have affected Israelis’ expectations for the country’s long-term future.

Social cohesion is another major concern. More than half of Israelis, both Jewish and Arab citizens, believe the war has increased divisions within Israeli society.

Only about one-quarter believe it has strengthened national unity. The perception that Israeli society has become more divided has increased over the past two years.

The survey also found that approximately 20% of Israelis are considering leaving the country because of the current security and social situation.

Fewer than two-thirds said they were not considering emigration.

Public doubts extend to the government’s handling of the war. Most Israelis believe the objectives Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set at the beginning of the war, described as achieving “total victory,” have not been achieved.

Fewer than 20% said those goals had been achieved to a large extent or in full.

The findings also show continued public scrutiny of the failures preceding the Oct. 7 attack.

Approximately half of Israelis said the greatest responsibility lies with the government, while around one-third assigned primary responsibility to Israel’s security establishment.

Looking ahead, respondents identified restoring security and preventing another Oct. 7 attack as a leading priority for the next government, alongside reducing the cost of living.

The survey also suggests that Netanyahu faces a significant political challenge. Only around one-third of Israelis said they want him to serve as prime minister again.

Among those seeking an alternative, approximately half favor former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, while the remainder are divided between former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman.

The study was conducted Oct. 5-6 among 2,437 Israeli citizens aged 17 and above. The sample was designed to represent Israel’s adult population, with a stated sampling error of plus or minus 3.2% at a 99% confidence level.

The respondents are members of the Agam Institute panel who have participated in surveys during the current war and previous military conflicts, allowing researchers to track changes in public attitudes over time.