Trump’s warning: Turkey supports enemy

Is it in US interests to supply strategic F-35 planes to a country that may very well use them in the defense of Iran?

By Dr, Aaron Lerner, IMRA

President Donald Trump may have delivered the clearest warning yet to American policymakers regarding Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey’s future regional posture.

In Oval Office remarks on June 25, 2026, Trump praised Erdogan in highly personal terms: “I like him, he is my friend. Erdogan is a great leader, a very strong person. Everything I’ve ever asked from him, he’s done.”

But Trump then made a far more consequential statement. Referring to the recent conflict involving Iran, Trump said Erdogan “was a prime candidate to go into the war with Iran – maybe on the Iran side, because he’s not a big fan of Israel,” before adding: “I asked him to stay out of it, and he stayed out.”

The significance of the remark is not the praise itself. It is Trump’s explanation for why Turkey allegedly refrained from acting against American and Israeli interests. Trump did not describe Erdogan’s restraint as the product of NATO commitments, shared strategic interests, deterrence, or alliance structures. Instead, he explicitly framed it as a personal favor to him.

That distinction matters enormously.

If Erdogan’s restraint depends primarily on his personal relationship with Trump, then Trump’s own statement implies that the restraint could disappear the moment Trump leaves office.

In effect, Trump publicly suggested that Turkey’s current behavior should not necessarily be viewed as reflecting stable alignment with American strategic interests, but rather as a temporary accommodation tied to one personal relationship.

For American policymakers that should be a flashing warning sign.

Long-term security planning cannot assume that personal rapport between leaders is a durable substitute for converging national interests.

If Trump himself is correct that Erdogan stayed out “because I asked him,” then Washington must also consider the obvious corollary: What happens when there is no longer a Trump to ask?

It most certainly does not support US interests to supply strategic F-35’s to a country which may very well use them in the defense of Iran after Mr. Trump leaves the White House!