Who traded $1.5 billion minutes before Trump’s Iran tweet?

Massive trades just minutes before Trump’s announcement about U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks are raising eyebrows.

By World Israel News Staff

More than a billion dollars in oil futures trades, along with large bets placed on the gambling platform Polymarket, are raising suspicions that someone with insider knowledge of the Trump administration’s timeline for the war may be profiting from that information.

On Monday morning, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that the United States and Iran had engaged in serious talks aimed at ending the war, pledging that Washington would not attack Iran’s energy assets for at least five days — an announcement that had a swift positive impact on the market.

But shortly before Trump’s statement, there was an unusual surge in trading that has drawn scrutiny from market watchers.

“Just five minutes before Trump’s announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold,” wrote Unusual Whales, an X account dedicated to tracking suspicious market activity.

“These orders were four to six times larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual,” the account added.

Suspicious activity was also observed on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based betting platform. Last Friday, eight new accounts were created and immediately placed large bets that a ceasefire between the United States and Iran would be reached by March 31.

Those accounts wagered a combined $70,000 and stand to win as much as $820,000 if the ceasefire materializes.

The practice of creating multiple accounts — known as “wallet-splitting” — can be a red flag regarding dubious activity, according to experts.

The creation of multiple accounts on Polymarket “definitely [looks like] someone with some degree of inside info,” Ben Yorke, a former researcher with Cointelegraph who now works on an AI trading platform, told The Telegraph.

“Typically, when you see wallet-splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it’s one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading,” he added.