Hamas leading in Palestinian elections, poll shows, gaining ground since Oct 7

Weeks after Mahmoud Abbas announces plans to hold first Palestinian Authority general elections in 20 years, poll shows Hamas taking the lead over the ruling Fatah faction.

By David Rosenberg, World Israel News

Less than a month after Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas announced that the PA will hold its first general election in 20 years, a new poll shows the Hamas terror organization leading the vote.

On January 8, Abbas announced that 2026 will “be the year of Palestinian democracy,” vowing that local council elections will be held across the PA in April, followed by elections for the Palestinian National Council.

The PA has not held elections for the PNC since January 25, 2006, when Hamas crushed the ruling Fatah party, taking 74 seats in the 132-member Palestinian Legislative Council, with Fatah falling to 45 seats.

The previous election, held in 1996, saw Fatah win 50 seats out of 88 total.

After Hamas forces seized control of the Gaza Strip in June 2007, Abbas dissolved the Hamas-led PA government, declared a state of emergency and appointed a new Fatah-led government.

Hamas members of the PLC have been excluded from the Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria ever since, giving Fatah a de facto majority, while planned elections have been repeatedly delayed.

However, under pressure from the West to reform the PA, Abbas has signaled his support for new elections, though Hamas’ reintegration into the PA’s political system remains unclear.

Should Hamas be allowed to run, the terror group would defeat Fatah, a new independent poll shows.

The survey was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) under the auspices of the 9th Arab Barometer.

The results of the poll were published last Thursday, based on face-to-face interviews conducted at 160 locations in Judea, Samaria, and eastern Jerusalem, surveying 1,655 Arab adults.

According to the poll, the level of trust in Hamas among Arabs in Judea and Samaria has more than doubled since October 7, 2023, rising from just 18% who said they trusted the terror group in September and early October of that year to 46% during the period spanning October 8 to 26, 2025.

Figures were not available for the level of trust in Hamas among residents of Gaza.

In both Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip, 33% of likely voters said they would back Hamas, compared to just 25% in Judea and Samaria who said they would vote for Fatah, and 11% who said they would vote for some other faction, and 30% who said they would not vote for any of the above.

In Gaza, Hamas held a slightly smaller lead of six points over Fatah, 33% to 27%.

Support for Hamas rose in October 2025 in comparison to the level recorded in the 8th Arab Barometer survey, conducted prior to the October 7, 2023, invasion.

On the eve of the war, Hamas trailed Fatah by a wide margin in Judea and Samaria, 18% to 46%, and by a slightly narrower margin in Gaza, 25% to 40%.