Iran threatens to attack Europe – analysis

Since the ceasefire in April 2026, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials have boasted that Iran will unveil new weapons in future conflicts.

By Shay Khatiri, Middle East Forum

On October 31, 2026, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly met with senior commanders of the armed forces and instructed them to strike at Europe.

Khamenei told his commanders to employ “maximalist deterrence” and ordered them that they should meet any threat with “a quick response and without geographical limits.” Immediately, regime media pivoted to the talking points.

Keyhan, whose editor the supreme leader appoints, wrote that Iran’s possible targets go beyond the Middle East and include “the heart of Europe.” It added that Iran’s missiles could reach NATO bases up 3,000 miles away.

The mass-circulation Hamshahri echoed the argument and suggested that Iran’s deep strikes would disrupt the U.S. military’s supply lines.

With the possibility of a new conflict increasing after the U.S. midterm elections, officials are becoming even more vocal about these threats.

Mohammad-Javad Larijani, the brother of Ali who served as the secretary of Supreme National Security Council until a U.S. strike killed him, and Sadeq Larijani, who chairs the Expediency Council, said, “If it happens that Iran is attacked from American bases in Germany, Albania, or England, these bases will be our legitimate targets.”

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during an interview that Iran would not hesitate to attack U.S. bases to defend itself, without specifying any region.

He also mentioned that he discussed the matter with his Cypriot counterpart Constantinos Kombos, who assured him that he had told the British government not to use their base in Cyprus for attacks against Iran.

The article mentioned that Araghchi warned the United Kingdom and Bulgaria in July 2026 that they would face retaliation if the United States used their bases.

Other officials, such as members of parliament and former foreign minister-turned-parliamentarian Manuchehr Mottaki, issued the same warning.

Iran uses this trick to turn U.S. allies and partners into lobbyists against renewed conflict.

The reported damages to U.S. bases in the Middle East and low stocks of interceptors also encourage Iran to believe that it could seriously harm U.S. war efforts.

During Operation Epic Fury, Iran demonstrated its capability to reach the Diego Garcia base, which is about 2,500 miles away, likely using a Simorgh space-launched vehicle, which is typically much more expensive than ballistic missiles.

Scarcity might prove a problem. Iran’s tactic for missile attacks is swarming the target, and it is not publicly known whether Iran’s stockpile of its medium-range ballistic missiles is high enough to overwhelm U.S. interceptors.

Since the ceasefire in April 2026, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials have boasted that Iran will unveil new weapons in future conflicts.

One such weapon could be a modified version of Khorramshahr-4, a solid fuel medium-range ballistic missile that could reach Europe, which would be much cheaper. Initially, observers believed that this was the weapon Iran had used against Diego Garcia.

Iran’s gamble might also prove catastrophic. European elites and publics have been against the Iran War, but not at the cost of forfeiting their own security.

Unlike in the Middle East, where Iran is the only threat to its neighbors, Russia poses the most prominent threat to Europe.

As such, European governments cannot afford U.S. withdrawal. If attacked on their soils and faced with either turning on the United States or Iran as a measure, they might opt for retaliating against Iran, which is also an arms supplier to Russia.

Iran’s hubris might be a result of a false assessment that European governments will act the same way as Arab governments and seek to placate all sides.