‘Iranian regime may not survive the summer’ – Ex-IDF officer

The Trump administration is intentionally muddying the waters with its Iran policy, former senior IDF officer says, arguing that the US is sowing confusion in Tehran ahead of a new military campaign.

By World Israel News Staff

A retired Israeli military officer has predicted that Iran’s government may collapse within months, arguing that the Trump administration could be shifting from efforts to force Tehran back into negotiations toward a broader campaign intended to bring down the Islamic Republic.

Reserve Lt. Col. Amit Yagur said in an interview with Israel’s Channel 14 that the conflicting reports, official statements and leaks surrounding US intentions should be viewed as part of a deliberate effort to confuse Iran’s leadership.

Yagur described the information surrounding the confrontation as “one big propaganda war,” cautioning that neither public statements nor anonymously sourced reports necessarily reveal Washington’s actual plans.

The central question, he said, is no longer simply whether the US will conduct additional attacks, but what President Donald Trump ultimately wants those attacks to accomplish.

According to Yagur, the administration may have concluded that military pressure will not produce a durable agreement with Tehran. He said his interpretation of Trump’s recent rhetoric was that the president had determined “there is no one to talk to.”

Yagur suggested that Washington could therefore be considering a more ambitious objective: weakening Iran’s political and security institutions to the point that the government can no longer maintain control.

His assessment comes as the US and Iran have paused attacks following 13 consecutive nights of American strikes. Iran has reportedly indicated that it will refrain from retaliating as long as the US pause remains in effect.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump was giving diplomatic efforts “a little bit of room,” while warning that the administration remained prepared to resume military action if negotiations failed.

Oman has continued mediating discussions focused partly on restoring safe commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway has become a central battleground in the conflict, disrupting international shipping and contributing to higher energy prices.

Despite the temporary suspension of airstrikes, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in force. US Central Command announced earlier in July that American forces would intercept or redirect vessels attempting to enter or leave Iranian ports while allowing other regional maritime traffic to continue.

Yagur cited the blockade, the concentration of American forces in the region and continuing military preparations as evidence that Washington has not abandoned the possibility of a larger operation.

Asked whether renewed attacks could begin this week, he declined to offer a firm timetable. He suggested that the administration could be waiting until after the memorial service for the late senator Lindsey Graham and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned visit to Washington.

Netanyahu is expected to meet Trump during the visit, with Iran likely to be one of the main subjects of discussion. The Israeli government has consistently favored sustained pressure on Tehran, while the Trump administration has alternated between military escalation and attempts to negotiate an agreement.

Iran’s government is under severe pressure after months of war, sanctions, economic deterioration, infrastructure damage and domestic unrest. Authorities have responded with arrests, executions and expanded security deployments intended to prevent renewed anti-government demonstrations.

Those pressures, however, have not yet produced clear evidence of an imminent collapse. Previous assessments cited by Reuters found no large-scale defections from the Revolutionary Guards or other security institutions, which analysts consider one of the most important prerequisites for the fall of the government.

Interviews conducted in southern Iran also indicated that US attacks had worsened public anger over electricity failures, water shortages and economic hardship without necessarily turning that anger into an organized uprising. Some government critics instead blamed foreign military action for intensifying civilian suffering.

Yagur nevertheless argued that the cumulative pressures facing Tehran were becoming more dangerous by the day.

“The regime is in a very deep internal crisis,” he said, concluding: “I don’t think it survives the summer.”