Iraq risks being drawn into renewed Iran war despite pledge to stay out

Some Iraqi militant groups have independent military capabilities and political influence, complicating efforts to ensure that decisions about military action are made exclusively by the Iraqi state.

By Maddie Ali, The Algemeiner

Iraq’s efforts to remain out of a renewed confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel face growing challenges as Iranian-backed proxies across Iraq declare support for Tehran, raising questions about Baghdad’s ability to prevent its territory from becoming a battleground in a wider regional conflict.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has pledged that his country will not participate in conflict if it erupts, presenting his country as a potential mediator.

“Iraq will not participate in any war,” Zaidi told state-run media, saying Baghdad wanted to remain a meeting point for regional rivals and was working to ease the confrontation between Iran and the US.

The prime minister’s position reflects the government’s interest in preventing regional hostilities from destabilizing Iraq, which has spent years grappling with political divisions, security challenges, and the influence of armed groups outside its effective control.

However, the positions adopted by Iran-backed militias operating inside Iraq threaten to complicate the government’s efforts to maintain neutrality and reinforce state authority.

Iran-backed militant groups recently declared that standing with Iran in its confrontation with the US and Israel was a moral duty, according to Iraqi and Iranian media.

“Standing on the right side of history and defeating forces of evil are the whole duty of humankind according to the law of nature,” the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), an umbrella group of pro-Iran armed factions, said in a statement this past weekend.

“The US-Israeli aggression that the Islamic Republic of Iran is facing depicts the underlying reality of the confrontation between the camp of the truth on one side and the camp of falsehood on the other.”

The statement framed the confrontation in ideological terms, presenting support for Iran as an obligation.

The militias condemned American military use of Iraqi airspace in recent weeks and blamed Washington for decisions earlier this month by Baghdad to temporarily halt civilian air traffic to Iran and to shut down the two countries’ al-Sheeb border crossing.

“In the wake of these ongoing violations and encroachment upon self-determination, any declaration of full sovereignty [following the complete withdrawal of US-led coalition forces] constitutes an affront to the dignity and free will of the Iraqi nation,” the IRI said.

“How can one talk about national sovereignty when fateful decisions, which consolidate US dominion and strengthen its influence at the expense of independent decision-making, are taken abroad?”

The statement highlighted the gap between Baghdad’s official policy of neutrality and the position of armed groups that may pursue their own regional priorities.

The declaration raises questions about whether the Iraqi government can prevent factions operating within the country from taking actions that could expose Iraq to retaliation or draw it into wider conflict.

Zaidi has emphasized that weapons should remain exclusively in the hands of Iraqi state security forces, reflecting the government’s stated commitment to strengthening its authority over a wide network of Iran-backed militias.

Yet bringing armed factions under effective government control remains a major challenge.

Some of these militant groups have independent military capabilities and political influence, complicating efforts to ensure that decisions about military action are made exclusively by the Iraqi state.

If Iran’s proxy forces inside Iraq launch attacks connected to renewed fighting involving Iran, the US, and Israel, then Iraq itself could face serious security and political consequences even if the government has not authorized such strikes.

The operations of these proxies could also undermine Baghdad’s diplomatic efforts to maintain working relationships with neighboring countries on opposite sides of regional conflicts.

Reports of explosions at facilities associated with Iran-backed militant groups have raised concerns about Iraq’s security amid the prospect of renewed fighting.

On Oct. 17, the Iranian-backed umbrella group Hashd al-Shabi (PMF) said it had contained a fire caused by an explosion at its facility in Baghdad’s East Canal area.

The group said that five people had suffered minor injuries and that an investigation was underway.

The circumstances of the explosion remained under investigation in a report published on Oct. 24.

The available information did not conclusively establish the cause of the incident.

However, the facilities associated with Iran-backed militias held Chinese-made air-defense systems reportedly transferred from Iran, leading some observers to speculate that Israel targeted the equipment to destroy a potential threat.

Some reports suggested that the sites had stored drones and other military equipment.

The identities of those responsible for the reported incidents, the precise targets, and the circumstances surrounding the explosions remain unconfirmed.

Then on Tuesday, air defenses at the US Embassy in Baghdad shot down two suspected reconnaissance drones over the heavily fortified Green Zone.

While it’s unclear who was controlling the drones, analysts have said that Iran-backed militias were the likely culprits.

The incidents over the past few days show the security risks associated with the presence of heavily armed groups whose activities in Iraq can have consequences extending beyond the country’s borders.

According to experts, the challenge for Baghdad is to prevent Iran-backed militant groups from using their military capabilities in ways that could trigger escalation while ensuring that incidents do not further destabilize the country.

The immediate challenges, they say, are to reinforce state authority, prevent unauthorized military action by domestic militant groups, and preserve diplomatic channels that could help contain regional tensions.

Iraq’s ability to remain outside a wider regional confrontation will depend not only on the government’s stated intentions but also on its capacity to ensure that Iran-backed armed groups operating within its borders do not draw the country into a conflict it has pledged to avoid.