Khamenei speech suggests concern Iranian regime is falling apart

A recent survey by GAMAAN, a Netherlands-based diaspora polling firm, finds that 51 percent of Iranians believe that Israel won the war, compared to 16 percent who said Iran won.

By Shay Khatiri, Middle East Forum

On November 25, 2025, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a Basij Day speech both to celebrate the paramilitary and to comment on international affairs.

He began by lamenting that he could not participate in the official events “among the basijis.”

While the regime staged programming to suggest Khamenei spoke before an audience, live footage suggests he did not. Fearing for his life, Khamenei continues to avoid public appearances since the Twelve-Day War with Israel in June.

The second part of Khamenei’s speech focused on international relations and the war. “The nation of Iran, in the Twelve-Day War, both defeated America and defeated the Zionists,” he remarked, adding, “without a doubt.”

He explained, “They came and aggressed, were beaten up, and left empty-handed. This is defeat by the definition of the word.”

He alleged that “the enemy” suffered greater financial losses than Iran. The U.S. and Israeli interceptors cost over $1 billion, equivalent to approximately 17 percent of Iran’s total military budget, but this number both obscures purchasing power and takes Iranian statistics at face value.

He then stated that Israel has lost its reputation in the world. But while Israel’s reputational damage is real, it centered around the Gaza front, and not the Twelve-Day War, which even European leaders like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz celebrated.

That Khamenei views the Gaza War as his own should be a constant reminder of where responsibility lies.

Khamenei next stated, “They planned for twenty years to cause a war in Iran and provoke the people [against the regime].” However, he said, “the opposite happened; even those who had a distance with the regime sided with it.”

There are two different ways to read this comment. One interpretation is that Khamenei is delusional.

A recent survey by GAMAAN, a Netherlands-based diaspora polling firm, finds that 51 percent of Iranians believe that Israel won the war, compared to 16 percent who said Iran won.

Only 30 percent said that the war caused them anger toward Israel, compared to 42 percent who said it made them angry with the Islamic Republic.

Sixty-three percent said the war was between the Islamic Republic, not the Iranian people, and Israel, compared to 33 percent who called it a “patriotic war.”

Sixty-nine percent said that the Islamic Republic should stop calling for Israel’s destruction.

When he referred to “those who had a distance with the regime,” he meant the disaffected reformists and rank-and-file of the security forces.

Khamenei’s speech more broadly shows that he has given up on viewing the average Iranian as “the people.” Khamenei’s audience was those within the regime.

When he referred to “those who had a distance with the regime,” he meant the disaffected reformists and rank-and-file of the security forces.

Khamenei remains worried about another popular revolt. In 2019, the regime faced internal criticism for asking its proxy forces, such as Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces [Al-Hashd al-Sha’abi], to suppress Iranians.

Senior Iranian commanders sympathized with the protesters in 2022, and many in the local police refused to suppress the protests.

As a result, the regime has been loosening the enforcement of social laws, especially the hijab. This is causing a secondary problem: Hardliner youths are dissatisfied with social conditions and losing enthusiasm.

Worsening economic conditions, water and power shortages, and military defeat contribute to these problems.

Khamenei’s main audience, as always, was his own regime. Surprisingly, Khamenei endorsed President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, which he rarely has done for a reformist or a moderate.

This suggests an olive branch motivated by his concern about the regime’s internal stability.

As reformists regain prominence, the hardliners are left with neither power nor ideological victories.

Unless Khamenei is delusional, the supreme leader’s major purpose appears to be an attempt to convince his hardline supporters to stick with his regime.