Netanyahu weighs early elections amid Iran success and potential end to Gaza war

PM’s aides split on timing, but political maneuvering already underway as focus shifts to Gaza resolution and potential Saudi normalization.

By David Brummer, World Israel News

As Israel continues its military campaign in Gaza and reflects on the perceived successes of its recent strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, speculation is mounting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be considering a snap election.

According to reports aired on Monday on Israel’s Channel 12, senior members of Netanyahu’s inner circle assess he should capitalize on recent military gains and move toward dissolving the Knesset shortly after the Gaza operation concludes.

Political strategists close to the prime minister suggest that Netanyahu could use the momentum from the Israel-Iran operation and the backing of the US to frame an early election around a narrative of historic correction.

The emerging message in political circles is that “October 7 was the price to pay for a historical correction with Iran,” setting the stage for Netanyahu to campaign on promises to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.

However, others within the governing coalition caution against premature assumptions.

Despite the success in Iran, Netanyahu is reportedly determined not to call elections before hostilities in Gaza have ended and hostages are returned.

Close advisers also say that any move toward elections will only follow progress on the Saudi front — a diplomatic channel that Netanyahu views as crucial.

“First and foremost, the thought that Netanyahu would willingly forgo a year in power is rather odd,” one confidant commented, emphasizing the prime minister’s strategic outlook and reluctance to surrender his position ahead of the scheduled 2026 election.

Government officials suggest Netanyahu is eyeing a symbolic end to the war in Gaza — potentially accepting military control over the Philadelphi Corridor rather than full removal of Hamas — as a milestone toward advancing Saudi normalization talks.

Interestingly, Hamas reportedly did not oppose this demand in its response to the latest outline presented by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

Netanyahu’s growing influence within the government has coincided with the diminishing clout of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, reported the Haaretz daily.

Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party polls below the electoral threshold, alongside Sami Abu Shehadeh’s Balad Arab party. A Netanyahu ally reportedly dismissed Smotrich’s past threats to bring down the government, saying, “If he tries again, we’ll tell him to go ahead — no problem.”

Beyond Gaza, Netanyahu is keen to pursue normalization not only with Saudi Arabia but also with other Muslim-majority nations like Indonesia.

Advisers think this path offers greater political payoff than relying solely on wartime achievements.

Indeed, a recent Channel 12 poll showed Likud gaining seats, but largely at the expense of Netanyahu’s right-wing allies — suggesting limited movement between political blocs.

Ultimately, if Netanyahu can secure a diplomatic breakthrough with Saudi Arabia, insiders maintain he will likely move to call elections early — striking while the iron is hot, with global backing and regional leverage on his side.

The normalization path is reportedly favored by US President Donald Trump, who is also positioning himself as a central player in the evolving geopolitical dynamic.