‘Operation Epic Fury’ costs estimated at $40 billion

U.S. Adm. Brad Cooper, the Central Command chief, said that U.S. forces fired 13,629 strike munitions against more than 13,000 targets by the ceasefire.

By JNS

“Operation Epic Fury” cost around $40 billion, according to an estimate released Tuesday by the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The report of costs related to the U.S. campaign against Iran, which began on Feb. 28, surveyed six categories to arrive at this figure: 1) deployment/redeployment; 2) munitions; 3) higher operational tempo; 4) equipment losses; 5) base damage; and 6) higher fuel prices.

CSIS estimated the war costs to be between $34 to $42 billion, closely matching the results of a separate study by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), which put the war costs between $31 billion and $41 billion.

The estimate’s authors stressed that the analysis included only additional costs to the U.S. Department of Defense due to the war and excluded costs already in the budget.

The first cost category: deployment and redeployment costs, is estimated at $0.17 billion. They cover the transfer of U.S. personnel, equipment and supplies into and out of the theater.

By the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” U.S. forces included two carrier-strike groups, dozens of fighter aircraft, and extensive supporting air, naval, ground and logistics assets, the estimate noted.

The second category, munitions, cost $26.1 billion. U.S. Adm. Brad Cooper, the Central Command chief, said that U.S. forces fired 13,629 strike munitions against more than 13,000 targets by the ceasefire, according to the report.

The coalition’s success in shutting down Iranian air defenses significantly lowered operational costs by allowing U.S. forces to shift from expensive long-range weapons to less costly short-range precision munitions.

The analysis noted that a “dumb bomb” equipped with a JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) guidance kit was a fraction of the cost of a Tomahawk missile ($2.6 million vs. $100,000).

Higher operational tempo costs are estimated at $0.75 billion and reflect additional expenses incurred during the conflict beyond those already funded in the FY 2026 defense budget.

The estimate assumes a 10% increase in operating costs during the 39 days of active combat, consistent with budgeting practices used during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

Equipment losses and damages are estimated at $1.8 billion to $3.5 billion. CSIS’s analysis used Defense Department press releases and public reports to gauge losses, which were mostly aircraft.

Base equipment losses, estimated separately from equipment losses, were between $4 billion and $9.4 billion.

Fuel costs are estimated at $1.4 billion, reflecting the impact of higher fuel prices across the entire Defense Department.

The estimate assumes jet-fuel prices rose from the FY 2026 budgeted rate of $3.67 per gallon to about $4.46 per gallon, adding roughly $800 million in costs during the four months of war based on projected annual fuel use of 3.05 billion gallons.

If prices remain high for an additional six months before returning to prewar levels, the Defense Department would incur another $600 million in fuel expenses, the report said, arriving at the figure of an additional $1.4 billion.