Turkey is testing Trump ahead of the NATO summit

As Turkey approaches the July 7–8, 2026, NATO summit, Erdogan has increased the severity and frequency of his provocations, seemingly to see what he can get away with.

By Michael Rubin, Middle East Forum

When Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) won Turkey’s November 2002 elections, Erdoan bent over backwards to assure the Western audience that he no longer represented the hardline Islamism of his mentor and former prime minister, Necmettin Erbakan.

“Secularism is the protector of all beliefs and religions. We are the guarantors of this secularism, and our management will clearly prove that,” Erdogan declared.

President George W. Bush, Secretary of State Colin Powell, and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice all took Erdogan at his word. So, too, did President Barack Obama.

Indeed, no matter what outrage, successive U.S. administrations continued to treat Turkey as if it were Teflon, immune to any accountability for its actions.

A generation of American diplomats rationalized Turkish behavior and dismissed it by insisting that Turkey was simply too important to lose.

President Donald Trump’s second term has exemplified this attitude.

During his second term, Trump has called Erdogan a “hell of a leader,” “a good friend,” and “very respected.”

Ambassador Tom Barrack, a former Trump business associate, has gone farther, translating Turkey’s historical grievances, genocide denial, and revisionism as U.S. policy.

He has praised strong leaders over democracy, called Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program “insane,” rationalized Turkey’s ties to Hamas, lamented the fall of the Ottoman Empire, and called the Armenian Genocide “an old impression.”

As Turkey approaches the July 7–8, 2026, NATO summit, Erdogan has increased the severity and frequency of his provocations, seemingly to see what he can get away with.

For example, on March 9, 2026, Turkey deployed six F-16s and air defense systems to northern Cyprus in violation both of United Nations Security Council resolutions and U.S. end-use agreements; the Trump administration did not respond.

Now, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has augmented Turkey’s militant rhetoric when he declared about the world’s only Jewish state:

“These people have become a burden that humanity can no longer bear.”

Barrack may not care; he has become more Turkey’s spokesman to the United States than U.S. ambassador to Turkey.

Nevertheless, Trump’s presence now risks becoming the greatest affront to American Jewry and Jews in general since President Ronald Reagan laid a wreath at a Nazi SS cemetery 46 years ago.

At a minimum, the United States should call out Fidan’s incitement to genocide.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio should call Barrack home for consultations.

And, while Trump looks forward to the trip and the red carpet treatment he will receive in Ankara, the White House and his handlers should consider whether Turkey deserves a presidential visit so long as Fidan does not clarify and retract his comments.