Uprising becomes a war of attrition as Iranians await US action

How long unarmed protesters can withstand mass killings and arrests remains uncertain.

By Mardo Soghom, Middle East Forum

As CBS News reported that Islamic Republic security forces may have killed as many as 20,000 protesters during more than two weeks of unrest in Iran, signs emerged that the key opposition figure in exile, Reza Pahlavi, is in contact with the Trump administration.

The son of the late shah and heir to Iran’s throne sought to reassure Iranians on January 13, 2026, telling supporters that foreign assistance would arrive soon.

His remarks coincided with comments by President Donald Trump, who suggested U.S. action was imminent.

“When they start killing thousands of people and now, you’re telling me about hanging [protesters], we’ll see how that works out for them,” Trump told a reporter. “It’s not going to work out good.”

Axios reported on January 13 that Pahlavi met over the weekend with White House envoy Steve Witkoff.

The Trump administration evidently concluded that the prince enjoys significant support inside Iran and was able to mobilize millions of people into the streets following his call for protests beginning on January 8.

Demonstrations continued on January 13, accompanied by reports that security forces had begun deploying heavy machine guns in urban areas.

One video showed that at a single location, security forces fired 262 rounds in just six minutes—a rate of fire more consistent with a battlefield than with crowd control.

Observers have little doubt that civilian casualties have reached into the thousands, even though the toll remains impossible to verify.

Authorities also have continued the practice of demanding money from families in exchange for releasing the bodies of slain protesters, with sums ranging from a few hundred dollars to as much as $20,000.

According to one report, bullets are removed from bodies to eliminate forensic evidence, and families are pressured to accept anonymous burials in remote locations.

Given the deep cultural importance of proper burial rites in Iran, many families reportedly comply if they can afford the payments.

Social media posts and eyewitness accounts relayed to activists abroad said that on January 13, security forces trapped protesters in the main bazaar of Rasht, a northern city, and opened fire with heavy machine guns, killing hundreds.

According to these accounts, the bazaar was then set ablaze and burned to the ground, allegedly to destroy evidence. State-controlled media, however, reported that “traitors” had set fire to the bazaar themselves in an attempt to harm the country.

Some Iranian media sources have also claimed that as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struggles with manpower shortages, it has begun providing weapons training to children.

As Iranians await possible U.S. action, reports have emerged that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman are pressing the Trump administration not to launch an attack.

Qatar has long maintained close ties with Tehran, while Saudi Arabia’s position appears driven largely by concerns that Iran could retaliate against its oil infrastructure.

Regional officials have warned reportedly that a U.S. strike could drive up oil prices. So far, however, prices have continued to fall despite the turmoil in Iran.

That trend may reflect two factors. First, there have been no confirmed reports of disruptions to Iran’s oil production.

Second, markets may be anticipating that if the uprising succeeds and the current leadership falls, a new government would sharply reverse Iran’s foreign policy, leading to the lifting of sanctions and a surge in Iranian oil exports at a time of global oversupply.

The uprising increasingly has taken on the character of a war of attrition. How long unarmed protesters can withstand mass killings and arrests remains uncertain.

At the same time, the authorities face their own limits, since the same security units are forced to confront angry crowds day after day.

Reports of casualties among Revolutionary Guard forces and incidents of desertion have begun to surface.

Under these conditions, analysts argue that a decisive air campaign by the United States and Israel could tip the balance in favor of the protesters.