Vance challenges Netanyahu’s war assessment in tense call as rift emerges over Iran strategy

Advisers say Vance backs Israel but is monitoring potential gaps between U.S. and Israeli goals.

By Vered Weiss, World Israel News

Vice President JD Vance directly challenged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s views on the war with Iran during a tense phone call this week, disputing Israeli assessments about the likelihood of regime change and exposing friction between the two governments, U.S. officials told Axios.

According to those officials, Vance questioned Netanyahu’s prewar projections, particularly regarding how easily Iran’s leadership could be toppled. “Before the war, Bibi really sold it to the president as being easy, as regime change being a lot likelier than it was. And the VP was clear-eyed about some of those statements,” a U.S. official said.

The disagreement comes as Vance takes on an expanded role in U.S. diplomatic efforts tied to the conflict.

During a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, President Trump asked Vance to brief officials on Iran and highlighted his work with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on negotiations.

Vance has been actively engaged in discussions with Israeli leadership, meetings with Gulf allies, and indirect exchanges with Iranian officials.

U.S. officials said he is expected to lead the American side in any potential high-level talks.

Sources said Vance had expressed doubts before the war about Israeli expectations for how the conflict would unfold and now anticipates it could last several more weeks.

Advisers say he backs Israel but is monitoring potential gaps between U.S. and Israeli goals.

At the same time, some administration officials have raised concerns that Israeli actors may be attempting to weaken Vance’s standing. “It’s an Israeli op against JD,” one official said, though Axios reported there is no evidence to support that assertion. Israeli officials denied any involvement.

A senior administration official stressed Vance’s importance in the diplomatic track, saying, “If the Iranians can’t strike a deal with Vance, they don’t get a deal. He’s the best they’re gonna get.”

Efforts to arrange talks are ongoing, with Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators involved. Iranian officials have told intermediaries they are awaiting approval from “top leadership” before moving forward.