‘Dirty bomb’ attack: This could be Iran’s next move against Israel

If Khamenei wants to make good on his threats, his next step will likely be to hit Israel with dirty bombs to spread radiation over large sections of its urban areas.

By Michael Rubin, Middle East Forum

The Islamic Republic continues to fire missiles at Israel. Israel and its allies shoot down most, but a few continue to get through.

Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to vow revenge. “Israel has prepared a bitter fate for itself, which it will surely receive,” he announced.

His time is running out. Israel’s strikes into Iran are more precise and effective than Iran’s missile and drone barrages. Every Iranian launch exposes batteries and launch sites Israel then targets.

While Israel can continue its air and missile strikes to degrade the regime’s nuclear and military sites and eliminate its leadership, the Iranian military essentially flails ineffectively.

What Will Iran Do Next?

As Khamenei and his Islamic Republic grow more desperate, the international community should brace for Khamenei’s attempt to make good on his threat.

The Iranian barrages so far demonstrate that, despite repeated statements by Iranian diplomats like former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the goal of Iran’s arsenal was always Israel’s eradication; there was little “duel” in the regime’s dual-use work.

Khamenei is 86-years-old and now among the last of his generation of revolutionary officials; he wants to see his life’s work achieved in the next days.

There is little doubt that the Islamic Republic has a huge stockpile of uranium, in quantities and with enrichment levels far beyond what it would need for either a civilian nuclear energy program or medical purposes.

The U.S. government erred when it arbitrarily defined Iran’s nuclear weapons capability as achieving 20 kilograms of 90 percent enriched uranium.

Essentially, the intelligence community twisted its intelligence by using an arbitrary definition to deny Iranian goals and achievements.

In reality, nuclear weapons can have great destruction at enrichment levels below 90 percent. The uranium in the “Little Boy” bomb dropped on Hiroshima, for example, had an average enrichment level of 80 percent, a level Iranian scientists had already achieved.

The Dirty Bomb Nightmare

Israel may have struck Iran before it could build a fissile nuclear weapon, but the Islamic Republic can still cause tremendous destruction short of a nuclear explosion.

If Khamenei wants to make good on his threats, his next step will likely be to hit Israel with dirty bombs to spread radiation over large sections of its urban areas.

The same strategy would satisfy Khamenei’s desire for revenge against Arab states that help Israel.

After all, if Jordan shoots down a missile with a radioactive warhead over its own territory, then the resulting radiation contamination it suffers would be, from Khamenei’s perspective, divine retribution.

What Should Israel Do?

With such a situation looming, Israel has no choice but to kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Iranian ayatollah is a legitimate target due to his constitutional role as commander-in-chief of the Iranian military.

What should the United States do? There is no substitute for an integrated information operation in any military campaign, even one in which Americans do not directly participate.

President Donald Trump should use his bully pulpit to make clear that any Iranian of any rank who participates in the preparation of a dirty bomb will not only be killed, but their property will also be destroyed.

If the U.S. intelligence community has penetrated sufficiently, it should even announce the names of those it is watching and to which it is speaking in order to deter their action.

The current Israel-Iran war is bad; it behooves everyone to prepare for the fact that the Islamic Republic may intend it to get much worse.