Iran gambles that the United States won’t resume hostilities

While the current decision-makers teeter between defiance and acceptance of U.S. demands, they bet that Trump does not want to resume hostilities.

By Mardo Soghom, Middle East Forum

While President Donald Trump stoked hopes of more negotiation with the Islamic Republic of Iran and possibly an agreement, urging observers to watch for an “amazing two days,” a top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general warned that if the United States continues its blockade of Iranian ports, the armed forces would not allow any exports or imports to continue across the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, or the Red Sea.

In a statement released by media in Tehran on April 15, 2026, Major General Ali Abdollahi said that the continuation of the U.S. blockade “would constitute a prelude to a violation of the ceasefire.”

“I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” Trump told ABC News, adding that he does not expect the current ceasefire, set to expire on April 21, will need an extension.

With U.S. and Iranian officials possibly returning to Pakistan for another round of talks, Vice President JD Vance, who led negotiations that ended April 12 without a breakthrough, expressed cautious optimism.

Citizens and activists from Iran report an economic deterioration this week as the U.S. blockade takes hold. Reports say that workers in the petrochemical sector and other industries are losing their jobs.

Food inflation is triple-digit as the specter of tighter imports looms. The United States has said it will allow food shipments to pass through, but cargo vessels might choose to stay away and inspections on the high seas might slow down deliveries.

More than 80 percent of Iran’s foreign trade depends on its southern ports.

Citizens also report that Tehran resembles a garrison city as security forces and foreign fighters congregate everywhere, armed with automatic weaponry.

Thousands of Iraqi Shi’ite militiamen, Afghan fighters under the command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and others have been mobilized inside the country to help the security forces in preventing an outbreak of protests.

In January 2026, Iranian security forces killed perhaps 30,000 civilians during nationwide unrest.

Iranian Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi, speaking at a European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee session in Brussels on April 15, said, “The war in Iran between the Islamic Republic and the Iranian people began years ago, and there has never been a ceasefire.”

In an attempt to claim victory in the war, however, Trump said, “They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.”

After dozens of top political and military figures were eliminated in June 2025 and March 2026, the remnants of the regime now try to cling to power.

The country’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is a figurehead for the regular government bureaucracy, but decisions reside with the remaining commanders of the Revolutionary Guard.

The main interlocutor with the Trump administration, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, represents one faction within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

He was a former general and police commander with close ties to late Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani.

Trump’s claim that the U.S. military took out the radicals is true in the sense that the head of the regime, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, no longer exists, but the political system he built around the Revolutionary Guards and radical elements still functions.

While the current decision-makers teeter between defiance and acceptance of U.S. demands, they bet that Trump does not want to resume hostilities.

Nour News, close to Iran’s National Security Council, published an article on April 13, 2026, saying that the U.S. decision to impose a naval blockade represents both economic and psychological pressure, and signals a desire for deterrence.

The article suggests Washington is pursuing a “gray zone” strategy—maintaining pressure without entering full-scale war but retaining the option of limited strikes.

The Trump administration’s optimism about a “new regime” in Tehran might be a rushed judgment. Ghalibaf is from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and is close to the Khamenei family, but the real decision-makers are among the commanding generals.

Even if the Washington and Tehran reach a deal, these generals will not allow Iran to become a “normal” country. They will maintain tight political and economic control, waiting for the Trump era to end.